Anything can happen in tennis, and sometimes rankings have little to do with outcomes. The top half of the women’s draw at the Australian Open—where three unseeded players have reached the quarterfinals—is a perfect illustration of the way upsets can open the draw up and prove that a major title is up for grabs.
One of the biggest upsets of the tournament, if not the biggest, was 19-year-old Linda Noskova’s three-set defeat of world No. 1 Iga Swiatek in the third round. The young Czech had already upset a higher-ranked opponent (No. 31 seed Marie Bouzkova) in the first round, but very few expected her to win the fight against the four-time major champion.
Noskova, the world No. 50 leading into the Australian Open, fired off 10 aces and won 71% of her first serve to come back from a set behind and punch her ticket into Round 4 for the first time at a Slam, while notching her fourth Top 10 win. No. 19 seed Elina Svitolina later retired due to injury after just three games in the Round of 16, sending Noskova into the quarterfinals.
In order to reach the semifinals, Noskova will have to get through former Top 25 player Dayana Yastremska on Day 11 in Melbourne. Yastremska came through the qualifying tournament to earn a main-draw berth, and hit the ground running at the tournament with a first-round upset of reigning Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova.
The Ukrainian beat world No. 7 Vondrousova in just 76 minutes, and has only dropped one set during her run at the Aussie Open in her third round match against No. 27 seed Emma Navarro. Yastremska also beat No. 18 seed Victoria Azarenka in Round 4, putting her in the the quarterfinals at a major for the first time.
The two players have never met, and by ranking alone, Noskova would be predicted to win, sitting 43 spots above Yastremska. However, both are having personal-best runs at a Grand Slam—and if this tournament has taught us anything, it's that paper projections haven't mattered between the lines.
The third unseeded player left at the top of the draw is Anna Kalinskaya. While her early round opponents weren’t easy—she beat former US Open winner Sloane Stephens in the third round—her highest-ranked opponent until now was No. 26 seed Jasmine Paolini. Her path was partially cleared by Anna Blinkova, who took out No. 3 Elena Rybakina in the second round, before losing to Paolini in the third.
Kalinskaya is going up against the only seeded player left in the top half: No. 12 Zheng Qinwen, who is making her second quarterfinal appearance at a Slam. Kalinskaya defeated Zheng in their only previous meeting in Guadalajara in 2022.
Looking forward to the semifinals, the potential matchups provide plenty of intrigue. Zheng is the favorite in this half of the draw, expected to face the winner of the 2023 US Open final rematch between Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka. She has never faced Yastremska, but leads 1-0 against Noskova—the result of a 2021 match on the ITF circuit.
If Kalinskaya upsets Zheng, she has two different records against her possible opponents. She leads 3-2 against Yastremska, winning most recently in Rome last spring. Kalinskaya has only played Noskova once, in the qualifying rounds of Adelaide in 2023, losing in three sets.
No matter the outcome of the matches, we will have two first-time Grand Slam semifinalists and a new finalist.
“It's the first Grand Slam of the year. It's obviously very tough for everyone, especially for the seeded players to kind of stand their ground and play what they should and all that stuff,” Noskova said.
“But obviously [in] such a tournament, anything can happen. So yeah, we'll see. Obviously there [have] been a lot of shocking results in men's [and] women's draws. The players that are there right now are amazing, so it will be [a] really tough match next and hopefully the next ones as well.”
