The US Open men’s draw has been a place of relative stability in recent years. There have been some upsets and upstarts, certainly, but starting in 2015 a Top 3 seed has won the title every year except 2018, when No. 6 Novak Djokovic—hardly an unheralded long shot—captured the crown.
In fact, few outside the Top 10 have even contested a final, with No. 28 Kevin Anderson in 2017 being the only non-Top 10 seed to advance to the title match.
Dig deeper and you’ll find, well, more stability. In this century only once have three or more double-digit seeds advanced to the semifinals—in 2017, when top seed Rafael Nadal was joined by Anderson, No. 12 Pablo Carreno Busta and No. 26 Juan Martin del Potro
The 2024 US Open has had a decidedly different feel. No. 2 Djokovic and No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz didn’t even make it to the opening weekend, No. 4 Alexander Zverev and No. 5 Daniil Medvedev fell in the quarterfinals, and up and down the draw, seeds have been planted in unprecedented fashion.
What’s left is an utterly new—and incredibly compelling—final four. All are 26 and under. None has ever before won a US Open title, much less reached a US Open final.
The top half of the draw features the lone Top 3 seed, who also happens to be the very top seed, Jannik Sinner, against the most dominant performer in the men’s singles draw to this stage, Jack Draper. Both are powerful baseliners and nearly the same age—Sinner just turned 23 a few weeks ago, Draper will be 23 in December—but their experience levels are wildly disparate: Sinner is the defending Australian Open champion and has reached the semifinals or better at all four Grand Slams in his young career; prior to this year’s US Open, Draper had never once advanced beyond the Round of 16 at a major.
The bottom half of the draw is an absolute thrill for the home-country fans: The first all-American semifinal at a Grand Slam since Andre Agassi defeated Robby Ginepri at the 2005 US Open. The 2024 version will feature No. 12 seed Taylor Fritz versus No. 20 Frances Tiafoe, with the winner to become the first American man to reach a US Open final since Andy Roddick in 2006 and the first U.S. male to reach a Grand Slam final since Roddick at Wimbledon in 2009.
Let’s take a closer look at the remaining contenders, with a champion to be crowned in just two short days:
- Seed/Rank: 1/1
- Next Opponent: No. 25 Jack Draper
- Best US Open Result: SF (2024)
- Previous Best US Open Result: QF (2022)
- Best Grand Slam Result: W (2024 Australian Open)
- Sets Won/Lost: 15-2
- Time Spent on Court: 11 hours, 17 minutes
Outlook: Sinner has been in fine form this tournament, looking every bit the part of the world’s best player as he aims to add a second hard-court major to the title he won in Melbourne to open the year—and in the process, likely lock up his first-ever year-end No. 1. The overwhelming favorite entering finals weekend, Sinner was impressive in a straight-sets victory over an in-form No. 14 seed Tommy Paul in the fourth round and backed that up by winning a bizarrely uneven four-setter against 2021 US Open champion and No. 5 seed Daniil Medvedev in the quarterfinals.
Overall, Sinner has won six of the 11 hard-court tournaments he’s played in the last 12 months and arrived in New York hot on the heels of a title in Cincinnati. He also won 2024 hard-court titles in Rotterdam and Miami and closed 2023 with victories on concrete in Beijing and Vienna, an impressive resume that would be handsomely burnished by a 2024 US Open Tiffany trophy.
- Seed/Rank: 12/12
- Next Opponent: No. 20 Frances Tiafoe
- Best US Open Result: SF (2024)
- Previous Best US Open Result: QF (2023)
- Best Grand Slam Result: SF (2024 US Open)
- Previous Best Grand Slam Result: QF (2022 Wimbledon, 2023 US Open, 2024 Australian Open, 2024 Wimbledon)
- Sets Won/Lost: 15-2
- Time Spent on Court: 12 hours, 9 minutes
Outlook: On his fifth try, Fritz finally broke through into his first career Grand Slam semifinal—and he did it in spectacular fashion, ousting reigning French Open finalist and 2020 US Open runner-up Alexander Zverev in four scintillating sets. That adds to a career season that has seen Fritz advance to the second week at all four majors—the first American man to accomplish that feat since Andre Agassi in 2003—with quarterfinal showings at the Australian Open and Wimbledon. In addition, the California native won titles in Delray Beach and Eastbourne and reached the final in Munich. He struggled a bit coming off his Olympic bronze medal in men’s doubles (with Paul), going just 1-2 during the summer hard-court season, but has come to life in Flushing Meadows, overcoming former Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini in the second round and upsetting No. 8 seed Casper Ruud and No. 4 Zverev in the fourth round and quarterfinals, respectively, dropping just a single set in the latter two encounters. His next challenge will be handling the pressure of competing for a maiden Grand Slam final, just two matches away from becoming the first U.S. man to win a Grand Slam title since Andy Roddick at the US Open in 2003.
- Seed/Rank: 20/20
- Next Opponent: No. 12 Taylor Fritz
- Best US Open Result: SF (2022, 2024)
- Best Grand Slam Result: SF (2022 US Open, 2024 US Open), QF (2019 Australian Open, 2023 US Open)
- Sets Won/Lost: 14-5
- Time Spent on Court: 15 hours, 1 minute
Outlook: Tiafoe is making himself at home in New York, earning the adoration of the US Open faithful and rewarding them with a series of stirring performances. He has now advanced to the semis in Flushing Meadows twice in the past three seasons and is 22-6 at the US Open since 2018, compared to 9-7 at the Australian Open, 4-7 at the French Open and 10-6 at Wimbledon over that same span. Right on cue, after a solid but unspectacular first six months to the year, Tiafoe has come alive this summer. He reached the semifinals in Washington, the final in Cincinnati and so far this tournament has knocked off No. 13 Ben Shelton in five sets, No. 28 Alexei Popyrin in four sets and, most recently, No. 9 Grigor Dimitrov in four sets.
The result is that Tiafoe has spent a lot of time on court to this stage—nearly three hours more than his semifinal opponent, countryman Fritz—which could be a factor if that one goes deep, even with two days off between their quarterfinal and semifinal matches. Tiafoe noted that their past history will likely have little bearing on this encounter, as nothing compares to a semifinal night match in Arthur Ashe Stadium, but Fritz will surely hope the opposite: He owns a career 6-1 head-to-head record against Tiafoe, including 4-0 since 2022, with three of those four victories coming in straight sets.
- Seed/Rank: 25/25
- Next Opponent: No. 1 Jannik Sinner
- Best US Open Result: SF (2024)
- Previous Best US Open Result: R4 (2023)
- Best Grand Slam Result: SF (2024 US Open)
- Previous Best Grand Slam Result: R4 (2023 US Open)
- Sets Won/Lost: 15-0
- Time Spent on Court: 9 hours, 14 minutes
Outlook: Draper was tabbed as a future star as a teenager, and after some ups and downs to start his career—he had advanced past the second round at a major just twice prior to this year’s US Open—is realizing all his vast potential this fortnight. He has benefited from a manageable draw, facing only one seeded player thus far, No. 10 seed Alex de Minaur, who he brushed aside in three sets Wednesday afternoon. Still, Draper’s play is enough to mark him as a legitimate threat to wear this year’s men’s singles crown. The 22-year-old lefty has yet to lose a set through five rounds, has surrendered just 36 games in his 15 sets played, and has logged just over nine hours on court, by far the least of the four semifinalists. That comes on the heels of an encouraging summer in which he won his first career title in Stuttgart and reached the quarterfinals at Queen’s Club and Cincinnati. His next match will be a significant step up in class—world No. 1 and reigning Australian Open champion Jannik Sinner—but Draper did win their only previous contest, 7-6, 7-6, at Queen’s Club back in 2021.
