The US Open women’s singles title was long dominated by the game’s greatest players, a lineage of Open Era champions that stretched from Billie Jean King to Chris Evert to Martina Navratilova to Stefanie Graf to Serena Williams.
But in the past 10 years, things have changed, the US Open transforming from the tournament that coronates the world’s best to the most unpredictable of Slams, the place where stars are born, not crowned.
In the 16 US Opens years ranging from 1999 to 2014, seven women raised the Tiffany trophy, with multiple championship runs authored by Kim Clijsters, Justine Henin, Serena Williams and Venus Williams.
Since that time, covering the last 10 tournaments, nine different women have triumphed in Flushing Meadows, with Naomi Osaka (2018, 2020) the only repeat winner.
A closer look at the last decade reveals a panoply of champions. Serena claimed the last of her record-tying six US Open titles in 2014, Flavia Pennetta won a shock championship in 2015 and promptly retired (on court, no less), Sloane Stephens took a surprise title in 2017, Bianca Andreescu did the same in 2019, and in 2021 Emma Raducanu became the first qualifier ever to win a Slam singles crown.
By comparison, the Australian Open has featured seven winners in the last 10 years, with Osaka, Aryna Sabalenka and Serena all winning twice and only Sofia Kenin (2020) registering as a genuine stunner.
There have also been seven different champions at the French Open, with top-ranked Iga Swiatek securing four titles. Roland Garros has had a couple of surprise winners during that span, Jelena Ostapenko in 2017 and Barbora Krejcikova in 2021, though the Czech’s victory earlier this summer at Wimbledon properly eliminated the "one-Slam wonder" moniker from her bio.
Like the US Open, Wimbledon has nine winners in its last 10 tournaments, but they largely rate as the best players of their era: The only players among them with a single Slam on their resume are Elena Rybakina, a surprise at the time but since then one of the world’s best, and the talented but injury-prone Marketa Vondrousova, who is out of this year's Open.
Add it up, and the grand total of first-time Slam winners at the other three majors in the last decade: 11, with none matching the US Open’s six maiden major victors over that same span.
And the sum of those who have won their only career major (to date) at that event: Five, which is equal to the US Open’s total alone.
How to explain this modern disruption? As is often the case with anomalies, there is no one reason or simple justification.
One significant factor, no doubt, is the lack of a dominant star like a Graf or Williams to horde titles and ensure the supremacy of the game’s elite. Ashleigh Barty looked like she could be that player, but the amiable Aussie retired before ever prevailing at the Open. And while Swiatek has reigned as the world’s best in recent years, and is hardly a slouch on cement, her standing—and ranking points—have been significantly bolstered by her dominance on dirt.
Another likely culprit is the arc of a tennis season. The modern game is increasingly physical, and the travel relentless. And of course, the more you win, the more you play. As a result, the world’s best oftentimes arrive in New York not at their best, and at the level it takes to win Grand Slams, even a small injury or degree of fatigue can make the difference.
Surface is also a factor. The peculiarities of grass typically take time to master, making Wimbledon an increasingly difficult proposition for younger stars. And clay rewards patience and physicality, traits more often associated with veteran players (the preternaturally gifted defender Swiatek standing as a glaring exception). And while the ground underfoot is similar, most players arrive fresh and ready for Melbourne, un-leveling the playing field.
Then there is belief. Titles by less-heralded players make other upstarts think they too have a chance, puncturing an aura of invincibility that the top players might enjoy at a different venue.
Finally, of course, there is the vagaries of sport. Sometimes the underdog wins, and sometimes those wins come in bunches.
The end result of these factors is that the US Open—once the most equitable Slam simply due to its medium speed and consistent bounce—is now the best opportunity to stage a breakthrough.
So, what does this mean for 2024? The favorites remain the current big four of women’s tennis—five-time Grand Slam champion and 2022 Open winner Swiatek, defending champion Coco Gauff, two-time Australian Open titlist Sabalenka and former Wimbledon winner Rybakina. The wisest pick remains with that quartet.
But this summer’s hard-court circuit had its share of surprises—two unseeded players, Paula Badosa and Marie Bouzkova, into the Washington final; unseeded Amanda Anisimova into the Toronto final. Add in the Olympic year and its quadrennial interruption of the regularly scheduled summer season, and you have an Open ripe for upsets and breakouts.
So, tread lightly in picking Swiatek, Gauff or even another former champ this year. Like most things in sport, the US Open is due for a course correction, a new era of dominance from the world’s elite. But if you let recent history be your guide, go with a newcomer.
