At this point in the season, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic have definitively separated themselves from the rest of men’s tennis, standing as favorites—or co-favorites—in every tournament they enter. That clearly holds at this year’s US Open. Still, the Open has been the most fickle of Slams for the men in recent vintage, producing first-time major winners each of the last three years and nine times overall since 2000, as many as the other three Slams combined.
So, who has the best chance to dethrone defending champion Alcaraz or three-time winner Djokovic? Below is a list of the top contenders, including the most likely to pounce should Alcaraz or Djokovic falter, the challengers who could emerge, and the sleepers—those outside the Top 10 who have a long-shot, but not unrealistic, chance to hoist the hardware at fortnight’s end.
Favorites
Carlos Alcaraz
Rank: 1
Best US Open Result: W (2022)
Best Slam Result: W (2022 US Open, 2023 Wimbledon)
Now a year removed from his maiden Slam title, Alcaraz has cemented himself as one of the preeminent stars in tennis. The precocious 20-year-old leads all ATP players in winning percentage, match wins and tournament titles this year, a nifty trifecta that naturally translates to US Open favorite. For good measure, he took down the indomitable Djokovic in a thrilling five-setter at the All England Club to back up his 2022 US Open title with a 2023 Wimbledon crown.
He did suffer a surprise loss to Tommy Paul in the Toronto quarterfinals this summer but rebounded to make the final in Cincinnati—losing to Djokovic in perhaps the best match of 2023—and there is every reason to believe the Spaniard will be in prime shape as he attempts to become the first man to repeat as US Open champion since Roger Federer in 2007-08.
Novak Djokovic
Rank: 2
Best US Open Result: W (2011, 2015, 2018)
Best Slam Result: 23-time champion
Djokovic is arguably the best player of all time and perhaps inarguably the best ever on hard courts, having won a record 10 Australian Open titles and reached a record nine US Open finals (though his record in the title match is a surprising 3-6). He is also an ATP-best 20-1 on cement this season. For most 36-year-olds, having to win seven matches on Flushing’s hard floors would be a concern, but Djokovic has proven himself among the fittest the tour has ever seen (see the Cincinnati final, which ran 3 hours and 49 minutes, as further proof).
If there is one trifle heading into this year’s tournament, it’s the world No. 2’s lack of match play—Wimbledon and Cincinnati are the only tournaments in which he’s competed since winning his 23rd major at Roland Garros in early June—but at this stage in the game, that should be of little concern for those anticipating Grand Slam title No. 24 in Flushing Meadows.
Contenders
Daniil Medvedev
Rank: 3
Best US Open Result: W (2021)
Best Slam Result: W (2021 US Open), F (2021-22 Australian Open, 2019 US Open)
The likely third pick to win the title behind Alcaraz and Djokovic, Medvedev is nails on this surface, unquestionably his best. All four of his Grand Slam singles finals have come on hard courts—including his lone title, when he stopped Djokovic’s run at the calendar-year Grand Slam here in 2021—and he leads the tour this year in hard-court titles and match wins, posting a 32-5 mark on concrete heading into the Open. Medvedev had a somewhat disappointing summer, however, losing to Alex de Minaur in the Toronto quarterfinals and Alexander Zverev in the Cincinnati Round of 16.
Jannik Sinner
Rank: 6
Best US Open Result: QF (2022)
Best Slam Result: SF (2023 Wimbledon)
The recently turned 22-year-old is among the hottest players on tour, coming off his first Grand Slam semifinal at this year’s Wimbledon and his first Masters 1000 title in Toronto to rise to a career-best No. 6. Now a regular in the second week of Grand Slams, Sinner is growing into his game and finding his legs against the world’s best, and he’s no slouch on hard courts, having posted 25 wins against six losses on the surface this year, a win total that trails only Medvedev and Taylor Fritz among ATP players. Don’t pay much mind to his early exit in Cincinnati, largely the product of his deep run in Canada—Sinner is a prime threat at this year’s Open.
Challengers
Holger Rune
Rank: 4
Best US Open Result: 3R (2022)
Best Slam Result: QF (2022-23 French Open, 2023 Wimbledon)
Rune has the game and competitive nature of a future Grand Slam champion, climbing the rankings in short order last year and establishing himself as a fixture in the Top 10 this season behind quarterfinal showings at Roland Garros and Wimbledon after a run to the final in Rome. The 20-year-old has cooled off recently, though, dropping his opening match to Marcos Giron in Toronto and retiring against Mackenzie McDonald in Cincinnati.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Rank: 7
Best US Open Result: 3R (2020-21)
Best Slam Result: F (2021 French Open, 2023 Australian Open)
Tsitsipas has the Masters 1000 titles, the big-time victories over top players and the general career success to stamp him as a serious contender for this year’s title. Yet, he carries the burden—alongside Zverev—of being the best player without a Grand Slam singles title (despite making six Slam semifinals and two finals) and has struggled at the Open, having never advanced past the third round in five attempts. His form entering the tournament has been mixed—a title in Mexico, an opening-round loss to Gael Monfils in Toronto and a routine defeat to Hubert Hurkacz in the Cincinnati Round of 16.
Alexander Zverev
Rank: 12
Best US Open Result: F (2020)
Best Slam Result: F (2020 US Open), SF (2020 Australian Open, 2021-23 French Open, 2021 US Open)
If Zverev is not all the way back from the ankle injury he suffered at the 2022 French Open, he’s mighty close, as he demonstrated in upsetting Medvedev en route to the semifinals in Cincinnati. Despite missing the early part of the season, the lanky German is up to No. 8 in the race to the ATP Finals, buoyed by his showing in Cincy and his run to the Roland Garros semifinals and title in Hamburg. The six-time Grand Slam semifinalist also has demonstrated success at the US Open, having served for the match against Dominic Thiem in the 2020 final and reached the semifinals again a year later.
Andrey Rublev
Rank: 8
Best US Open Result: QF
Best Slam Result: QF (2021, ’23 Australian Open; 2020, ’22 French Open; 2023 Wimbledon; 2017, ’20, ’22 US Open)
Rublev has been a steady presence at the top of the world rankings and a regular fixture in the second week of Grand Slam events for a number of years now, but he has yet to break through into championship weekend, posting an 0-8 record in Grand Slam quarterfinals. Rublev is generally an excellent hard-court player and boasts match wins over all the other contenders, but his form coming into the Open is questionable, the 25-year-old having dropped his opening matches in both Toronto and Cincinnati.
Casper Ruud
Rank: 5
Best US Open Result: F (2022)
Best Slam Result: F (2022-23 French Open, 2022 US Open)
After a standout 2022, Ruud has endured an uneven 2023, an impressive run to the final at Roland Garros and a title in Estoril intermingled with some unexpected losses. Surprisingly, Ruud has never won a title above the 250 level, but he is a dogged competitor who regularly shows at the tail end of the big events (he also reached the title match at the 2022 ATP Finals). Since the French Open, he is just 7-5, including early-round losses in Toronto and Cincinnati.
Taylor Fritz
Rank: 9
Best US Open Result: 3R (2018, ’20)
Best Slam Result: QF (2022 Wimbledon)
Fritz has been one of the more active players this summer—winning the title in Atlanta, reaching the semifinals in Washington, D.C., and competing in both Toronto and Cincinnati—so he’ll enter the Open match-tough. And with a record of 31-9, he trails only Medvedev in hard-court wins on the season. The top-ranked American has raised his level in the last two years to become a legitimate threat to the world’s best players, but he surprisingly has yet to crack Week 2 at the Open, having maxed out at the third round in 2018 and 2020.
Frances Tiafoe
Rank: 10
Best US Open Result: SF (2022)
Best Slam Result: SF (2022 US Open)
Tiafoe clearly relishes playing in New York, having reached the second week in Flushing Meadows three years running, highlighted by a career-best run to the semifinals a year ago (beating Rafael Nadal en route). And his explosive game is a threat against any player on any day. The Maryland product has enjoyed a generally solid 2023, headlined by titles in Houston and Stuttgart and a semifinal posting in Indian Wells, but he went just 2-3 during this summer’s hard-court season.
Sleepers
Alex de Minaur
Rank: 13
Best US Open Result: QF (2020)
Best Slam Result: QF (2020 US Open), 4R (2022-23 Australian Open, 2022 Wimbledon)
de Minaur ranks among the tour leaders in hard-court wins this season, with 23, and is coming off impressive runs to the final at both Toronto and Los Cabos that included victories over Medvedev, Fritz, Paul and Cameron Norrie. He also reached the title match at Queen’s Club earlier this summer behind wins over Rune and Andy Murray. The fleet-footed Australian has at times lacked the firepower to beat the world’s best, but he’s as in-form as any competitor entering this year’s Open.
Tommy Paul
Rank: 14
Best US Open Result: 3R (2022)
Best Slam Result: SF (2023 Australian Open)
A steady presence in the Top 50 in recent years, Paul has propelled himself into the upper echelon in 2023 behind semifinal showings at the Australian Open and Toronto—where he knocked off Alcaraz—and runs to the final in Acapulco and Eastbourne. Along the way, he has joined Medvedev, Fritz, Sinner and de Minaur as the only men with 23-plus hard-court wins on the season. Next up: a potential first-ever run to Week 2 at his home-country Slam.
Hubert Hurkacz
Rank: 17
Best US Open Result: 2R (2018, ’20-22)
Best Slam Result: SF (2021 Wimbledon)
A Top 10 player as recently as March of this year, Hurkacz has struggled through a bit of a middling 2023 season. But down to No. 20 in the world, he came alive this summer, pushing Alcaraz to a final-set tiebreak in Toronto and then defeating defending champion Borna Coric and Tsitsipas to reach the semifinals in Cincinnati. One reason for concern: Despite his hard-court bona fides, Hurkacz has never performed well in New York, losing in either the first or second rounds in all five previous appearances.
Sebastian Korda
Rank: 33
Best US Open Result: 2R (2022)
Best Slam Result: QF (2023 Australian Open)
Injuries and inconsistency have plagued Korda’s 2023, which was expected to be a breakout year for the young American. But he stands, alongside Tallon Griekspoor and Jiri Lehecka, as among the better prospects among players outside the Top 20 to break through at this year’s Open, as demonstrated by his run to the fourth round at Wimbledon in 2021 and to the Australian Open quarterfinals earlier this year.
