There are many ways to win a tennis match. During this year’s US Open, USOpen.org will be playing a numbers game, digging deeper into the statistical analysis of select matches to provide highlights, further insights, and data points on player performance.
With a first-time Grand Slam title and world No. 1 rankiing on the line, we look into why Casper Ruud and Carlos Alcaraz are the last men standing at the 2022 US Open.
1. Outrageous defense (Steal Score)
Ruud and Alcaraz have a unique blend of athleticism, court coverage, intelligent shot selection under pressure, and amazing shot-making. These attributes have led to them both shining in defense all championship long.
It will come as no surprise that the human highlight reel (Alcaraz) is one of the highest on the Steal Score leaderboard, but it is Ruud who tops the pile heading into the final:
1. Casper Ruud 40.9%
2. Daniil Medvedev 39.7%
3. Carlos Alcaraz 39.3%
4. Jannik Sinner 37.9%
5. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 36.9%
Championship Average 33.0%
Steal Score calculates how often a player has won the point when defending.
However, Alcaraz’s defense is getting better as the tournament progresses. This is displayed in his two most recent Steal Scores:
Quarterfinal vs. Jannik Sinner 41% (53/128)
Semifinal vs. Frances Tiafoe 44% (49/112)
2. Superior quality forehands (Baseline Battle)
Ruud and Alcaraz possess two of the most effective forehands in the game. Both men have superior forehand speeds, consistency levels (FH’s made in the court), and spin rates:
Speed 80 mph (Ruud FH) 78 mph (Alcaraz FH) 76 mph (Open avg.)
Consistency 89% 87% 83%
Spin 3,251 rpm 3,090 rpm 2,583 rpm
Both men's forehands have been critical in dominating baseline rallies and winning the majority of Baseline Battle points: Ruud 56%, Alcaraz 55%.
Baseline Battle calculates the percentage of points won for both players when they are at the baseline (championship average 50%).
3. Clinical attacking (Conversion Score)
As well as championship-leading defense, Ruud and Alcaraz have been clinical when in attack. A player is in attack when they have gained an advantage in the point.
This is illustrated by both men’s Conversion Scores: Ruud 74%, Alcaraz 71%.
Conversion Score calculates how often a player has won the point when attacking (championship average is 67%).
Why is this important? The player with the higher Conversion and Steal Scores has won 81% of matches at this year's US Open.
The matchup
With both men defending so well on route to the final, the critical area will be the player’s Conversion Scores. Which man can use their forehand to the greatest effect and win more points in attack?
