Defending champion Daniil Medvedev enters the US Open as its top seed and the world No. 1. But in defending the title, he is also defending 2,000 ranking points.
Rafael Nadal, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud are all within striking distance of the No. 1 spot in New York. According to the Pepperstone ATP Live Rankings, a projection tool which factors in points dropped and gained in any given tournament week or fortnight, it’s Nadal who is in pole position in the race to the top.
After missing the 2021 US Open with injury, the Spaniard is not defending any points in Queens. His Australian Open and Roland Garros titles this season put him in a strong position to reclaim the top spot for the first time since February of 2020.
ATP Live Rankings (with 2021 US Open points removed)
- Rafael Nadal, 5,630
- Alexander Zverev, 5,040 (missing US Open with ankle injury)
- Daniil Medvedev, 4,885
- Stefanos Tsitsipas, 4,800
- Carlos Alcaraz, 4,740
- Casper Ruud, 4,650
Looking at the distribution of ranking points at Grand Slams, we can get a clear picture of how the race might shape up in New York. The US Open champion will earn 2,000 ranking points; the runner-up, 1,200; and losing semifinalists, 720.
Even with a surprise early exit from Nadal, those in the chasing pack would need to reach the final to leave the US Open ahead of the Spaniard.
A final between top seeds Medvedev and Nadal would double as a battle for the No. 1 ranking, as would a title match between Alcaraz and one of Medvedev, Tsitsipas or Ruud, according to the ATP.
Medvedev shares the top half of the US Open draw with fourth seed Tsitsipas and fifth seed Ruud, while No. 2 seed Nadal and No. 3 seed Alcaraz could meet in the semifinals in the bottom half.
Of the five contenders, only Nadal and Medvedev have spent time as world No. 1. Nadal has held the top spot for 209 weeks, first reaching the summit in 2008, while Medvedev debuted at No. 1 in February and is currently in his second stint as the ATP's leading man.
The 19-year-old Alcaraz has a chance to become the youngest men's No. 1 in history, while Greece's Tsitsipas and Norway's Ruud are both seeking to become the first No. 1 from their nations.
