Not long ago, Daniil Medvedev was the outsider disrupting the status quo in men’s tennis.
In 2021, he denied Novak Djokovic his calendar-year Grand Slam by winning the US Open title. Months later, he ascended to No. 1 in the world, becoming the first player outside the Big Four to hold the top spot since Andy Roddick in 2004.
But coming into the 2025 US Open, Medvedev finds himself in need of a jumpstart. The 29-year-old sits outside the Top 10 and hasn’t won a title in more than two years.
“For me it's a matter of confidence,” he said. “I feel like this year, I lost a lot of close calls. When I start winning them, I can [climb] up the rankings and everything.”
As Brad Gilbert explained in a USOpen.org interview, confidence, and in turn results, can come and go quickly in tennis. One week you’re playing well and full of belief. But weeks later, after a handful of close losses, you might be reeling. And dismal stretches can affect opponents as much as they can the struggling player.
For instance, players like Medvedev who have been near the top for so long, build up a positive reputation that can help them in matches. But when those same players lose a few in a row, opponents start to see them differently.
“All of a sudden, people, instead of fearing you, say, ‘Okay, I want to play him now. What an opportunity to maybe get my first win against him,’” said Gilbert, former coach of Andre Agassi, Roddick, and Coco Gauff.
Medvedev’s most recent loss came at the Cincinnati ATP Masters 1000 event against world No. 85 Adam Walton, who earned his first Top 50 win with the three-set victory.
On a recent episode of his Served with Andy Roddick podcast, the 2003 US Open champion acknowledged that it won’t be an easy fix for the “wildly underappreciated” Medvedev.
“He’s absolutely searching for something. And when you have the game that is that cat-and-mouse, that is reliant on going to work, there are no easy solutions for Daniil Medvedev,” Roddick said. “Is he someone that's all of a sudden going to start serving and volleying? No, right? Is he someone that needs to extend points and take someone's legs out and has that process when he's at his best? Absolutely. So I'm not sure what the quick fix is.
“Now we're at an inflection point: Is this the new normal, or are we just dealing with an episode of confidence, maybe some adjustments? We don't know. Bet against the greats at your own peril.”
On court, Gilbert suggested Medvedev’s serve could be letting him down. In 2021, Medvedev’s best year on tour, the 6-foot-6 right-hander held nearly 87% of the time, sixth-best on tour. But in the past 12 months, he has held just 81% of the time, 42nd on tour.
Another possibility: Over the years, players have adjusted to his patterns and style, including Medvedev’s famously far-back return position. In the past 12 months, Medvedev has broken almost 27% of the time, down from nearly 31% for all of 2021.
“It’s very tough in tennis, because I could find 10 reasons and I would not know which one is the main reason,” Medvedev said in a recent ATP Tour interview. “Whatever we do, we just try to improve. So we sat down with the team: Where can we do things better? What can we change? We discussed some things, and I’m going to try and implement it.”
On-court adjustments could help, Gilbert explained. But more than anything, it comes down to belief on both sides of the net.
“Winning is contagious. Losing is contagious,” Gilbert said. “It's not like he can't get it back, because the guy moves unbelievable. He's got a great backhand. He's got a really effective serve. I mean, he's only 29.”
New York could certainly be the place for Medvedev to kickstart his season. Since 2019, the year he made his maiden major final in Queens, Medvedev has reached the US Open quarterfinals or better every year but one.
“I know that when I'm playing good, I can beat anyone. Pretty sure anyone. Maybe against Carlos and Jannik the odds are going to be on their side, but I can still beat them,” Medvedev said. “It's just work hard, try to find back this rhythm, this level, and then results can come and rankings can come.”
