On Saturday afternoon, for the ninth time in the last 10 years, the US Open will crown a brand new women’s singles champion. In that span, only Naomi Osaka in 2018 and 2020 has managed to lift the women’s singles trophy twice, a testament to the capricious nature of Grand Slam play and the grind of the toughest two weeks in tennis.
This year’s finalists, second-seeded Aryna Sabalenka and sixth-seeded Jessica Pegula, have navigated the draw with aplomb, each advancing to this stage with the loss of only a single set. That means both should be fresh for the finale, in one of the premier matches of Sabalenka’s career and certainly the biggest one for Pegula, the 30-year-old looking to join the esteemed ranks of American women to win their home-country Slam.
The pair are familiar with each other, having faced off in the Cincinnati final just two weeks ago, a 6-3, 7-5 Sabalenka victory. Overall, the world No. 2 holds a 5-2 advantage in their head-to-head series, including five of the last six, with all those wins coming in straight sets. But Pegula did pick up a victory on hard courts at the 2023 WTA Finals, and the match in Cincinnati was competitive throughout, providing a distinct glimmer of hope for the hometown faithful.
With that, let’s take a closer look at the finalists’ paths to the championship match and the hard yards they’ve put in to get here, as a date with history awaits Saturday afternoon in Arthur Ashe Stadium.
- Seed/Rank: 2/2
- Best US Open Result: F (2023-24)
- Best Grand Slam Result: W (2023-24 Australian Open)
- Sets Won/Lost: 12-1
- Time Spent on Court: 8 hours, 19 minutes
Outlook: The champion in Cincinnati leading into Flushing Meadows, Sabalenka is the proud owner of an 11-match winning streak and is into the US Open final for a second consecutive year, cementing her status as the preeminent hard-court player in women’s tennis. Since 2021, she has won the Australian Open twice (2023-24), reached the US Open semis twice (2021-22) and now the US Open final twice (2023-24). It is a decidedly impressive achievement, and a title on Saturday would deliver its capstone.
While her record is not unblemished this fortnight—the world No. 2 lost the opening set in her third-round match to Ekaterina Alexandrova, a match she stormed back to win, 2-6, 6-1, 6-2—Sabalenka has been largely dominant. She crushed reigning gold medalist Zheng Qinwen in the quarterfinals, 6-1, 6-2, and was solid throughout her 6-3, 7-6(3) victory against an impressive Emma Navarro in the semis. Alexandrova and Navarro aside, Sabalenka’s other encounters were all routine straight-setters, with the powerful 26-year-old never relinquishing more than six games in a single contest.
Nerves can always be a factor in a Grand Slam final—and they have vexed Sabalenka in the past—but the eight-year tour veteran looks confident and ready for this final match of the 2024 Slam season, just two sets away from becoming the first woman to sweep both hard-court majors in the same year since Angelique Kerber in 2016.
- Seed/Rank: 6/6
- Best US Open Result: F (2024)
- Previous Best US Open Result: QF (2022)
- Best Grand Slam Result: F (2024 US Open)
- Previous Best Grand Slam Result: QF (2021 Australian Open, 2022 Australian Open, 2022 French Open, 2022 US Open, 2023 Australian Open, 2023 Wimbledon)
- Sets Won/Lost: 12-1
- Time Spent on Court: 8 hours, 7 minutes
Outlook: The 30-year-old Pegula was a late bloomer, first cracking the Top 20 in 2021 and continuing her climb in the years subsequent, peaking at No. 3 in the world rankings in 2022 and 2023 and entering this year’s US Open at No. 6.
For all her tour success, though, a Grand Slam breakthrough remained elusive. Six times Pegula advanced to a major quarterfinal, only to be turned away on each occasion. At this year’s Open, she was given no gifts, with top seed and 2022 US Open winner Iga Swiatek lying in wait in the quarterfinals. But Pegula was masterful in that one, frustrating the five-time major winner into a stunning 41 unforced errors (against only 12 winners) to advance to her maiden Slam semi, where she gamely battled back from down a set and break to defeat Karolina Muchova, 1-6, 6-4, 6-2.
Pegula may be only 2-5 in her career against Sabalenka, her opponent in the final, but she has momentum on her side: The Buffalo native was the tour’s best during the summer hard-court season, winning the title in Toronto and reaching the final in Cincinnati. Another victory on Saturday and her past Grand Slam struggles will be a distant memory, Pegula joining the ranks of Billie Jean King, Chris Evert, Tracy Austin, Martina Navratilova, Lindsay Davenport, Serena Williams, Venus Williams, Sloane Stephens and Coco Gauff as Americans who have won a US Open women’s singles championship.
