WHAT HAPPENED: Jessica Pegula didn’t crack the world’s Top 100 until 2019, just days before her 25th birthday and a full decade into her playing career. She underwent two surgeries that saw her ranking plummet to as low as world No. 775. When she did reach the upper echelons of the sport, she came up short in her first six major singles quarterfinals. Now, at 30 years old, the Buffalo, N.Y., native will contend for her first Grand Slam singles title after coming back from a rout in the first set and a break down in the second to defeat Karolina Muchova in their stunning semifinal match Thursday night, 1-6, 6-4, 6-2.
“It comes down to really small moments that flip momentum,” Pegula said in her on-court interview after the match. “I came out flat, but she was playing unbelievable. She made me look like a beginner. I was about to burst into tears because it was embarrassing. She was destroying me… I was able to find a way, find some adrenaline, find my legs. Then, at the end of the second set into the third set, I started to play like how I wanted to play. It took a while, but I don’t know how I turned that around, honestly.”
Muchova and Pegula—the only two players not to drop a set en route to the semis—had contested just one previous match, 20 days ago on the fast hard courts in Cincinnati, or as Muchova said in press, “the parking lot in Cincinnati.” (Technically, it was Court 7.) The American claimed that battle, but it was close, extending over three sets and spanning 2 hours and 20 minutes. And even though the Czech player came into their US Open encounter the lower-ranked player, she possessed more experience at this stage, having played three more major semifinals than the American.
That experience paid off at first. Muchova saved three break points early in her second service game—one with a volley she picked up off her shoestrings. Then she employed her all-court game to glorious effect, coming forward, hitting slices, serving and volleying. Pegula could find zero answers, kept without a first-set hold after the first changeover. Flying around the court, Muchova won 16 of the last 20 points of the frame, including all seven when she came forward. The first set was over in 28 minutes. Somehow, it felt shorter than that.
In the second, Pegula sunk her teeth into the match. Before she could, though, Muchova raced out to a 2-0 lead and nearly grabbed a double break. As the Czech continued to charge forward, Pegula started to dig in and hit with more authority; she dipped a ball at her opponent’s feet to force an error and level the score. The American continued to stay aggressive, and she earned four break chances with Muchova serving at 2-3. Again, the 2023 French Open finalist displayed her astonishing shotmaking prowess, exploiting the geometry of the court to great effect to save the first few. But she could not save the fourth. Pegula let out a huge roar and the New York crowd erupted on behalf of the home favorite.
The break advantage would prove short-lived, but the shift of momentum gave the American confidence. She took early leads in Muchova’s next two service games, and then earned set points at 4-5. She converted when her opponent double faulted, and Muchova headed off court to regroup.
The third set began as an inverse of the second, with Pegula immediately breaking after cracking some deep returns. Muchova challenged the American on almost every subsequent service game, erasing 40-0 deficits as the first-set version of herself would sometimes reappear out of thin air. (At 3-1, she created two incredible angles to pass Pegula at the net twice.) At 4-2, Muchova earned her best shot to even the decider during a protracted game with multiple deuces. On her one chance to break, she dumped a slice into the net. Pegula jumped to a 5-2 lead, then broke in the very next game to reach her first-ever Grand Slam final.
WHAT IT MEANS: Pegula and her opponent in the final, world No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka, just met in the Cincinnati final a little over two weeks ago. The two-time Australian Open champion claimed that encounter, 6-3, 7-5. Overall Sabalenka has claimed five of their seven matches—though one of Pegula’s two wins did occur at Flushing Meadows, when the “Cincinnati” tournament was held at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
“Playing Aryna is going to be really tough,” Pegula said. “She showed how tough she is [in the first semi] and why she’s probably the favorite to win this tournament. It’ll be a rematch of Cincinnati, so hopefully I can get some revenge out here. It’s kind of crazy that we’re playing each other again in the finals, but I think it just shows how much great hard court tennis we’ve been playing. She’s going to be tough to beat, but that’s what the finals are for, so I’m ready.”
Pegula is bidding to match compatriot Coco Gauff's path to her maiden Grand Slam title one year ago in New York. Gauff beat Muchova in last year's semis before coming from a set down to beat Sabalenka in the title match.
MATCH POINT: Pegula, at 30 years old, is the oldest Grand Slam final debutante at the US Open since Flavia Pennetta reached that stage in 2015.
