For the ninth time in the last 10 years, the US Open will crown a first-time women’s singles champion (the only repeat being Naomi Osaka in 2020). And unless Aryna Sabalenka prevails, it will be a first-time major winner for the seventh occasion during that span.
An all-U.S. final—which would be the first since 2017, when Sloane Stephens defeated Madison Keys for her lone Slam, and just the second since Serena Williams topped sister Venus in 2002—remains a possibility, with Jessica Pegula and Emma Navarro on opposite sides of the draw. They will have their work cut out for them, though, with the Americans, both first-time Grand Slam semifinalists, facing off against Karolina Muchova and Sabalenka, respectively, both of whom are into the US Open semifinals for a second consecutive year.
The second-seeded Sabalenka will enter the Final Four as the prohibitive favorite, having reached last year’s US Open final and won the 2023 and 2024 Australian Open titles. She will go up against No. 13 Navarro, the former NCAA champ who toppled reigning women’s singles titlist Coco Gauff in the fourth round and backed that up with a straight-sets victory over Paula Badosa.
They will be followed by No. 6 Pegula, who ousted top seed Iga Swiatek to snap a six-match losing streak in Grand Slam quarterfinals, facing off against the talented but injury-prone Muchova, aiming for her second career Grand Slam final and first-ever title.
The four women have all taken commanding paths through the draw, dropping a grand total of three sets between them en route to the semis, all of which should set up a fantastic finish to this year’s Flushing fortnight.
Let’s take a look at the remaining challengers for this year’s crown:
- Seed/Rank: 2/2
- Next Opponent: No. 13 Emma Navarro
- Best US Open Result: F (2023)
- Best Grand Slam Result: W (2023-24 Australian Open)
- Sets Won/Lost: 10-1
- Time Spent on Court: 6 hours, 49 minutes
Outlook: Sabalenka is peaking at just the right time. She entered the Open fresh off a tournament title in Cincinnati, and she has been positively dominant thus far, dropping just 28 games in 11 sets—and that includes the six games she surrendered in the lone frame she lost, to No. 29 seed Ekaterina Alexandrova in the third round, a match Sabalenka stormed back to win, 2-6, 6-1, 6-2. Sabalenka saved her very best tennis for her biggest match, a commanding 6-1, 6-2 victory over reigning gold medalist and No. 7 seed Zheng Qinwen in the quarterfinals.
Moreover, the 26-year-old has been the dominant hard-court performer of the last two seasons, winning the 2023 and 2024 Australian Open titles and reaching last year’s US Open final (which came on the heels of semifinal showings in Flushing Meadows in 2021 and 2022). A victory in two days’ time and she would be the first player to sweep the two hard-court majors in the same season since Angelique Kerber in 2016. Standing between Sabalenka and a second consecutive trip to the final is rising American star Emma Navarro; the two have played twice previously, with Navarro nipping Sabalenka in three sets earlier this year in Indian Wells, and Sabalenka flipping the script with a straight-sets victory at the French Open two months later.
- Seed/Rank: 6/6
- Next Opponent: Karolina Muchova
- Best US Open Result: SF (2024)
- Previous Best US Open Result: QF (2022)
- Best Grand Slam Result: SF (2024 US Open)
- Previous Best Grand Slam Result: QF (2021 Australian Open, 2022 Australian Open, 2022 French Open, 2022 US Open, 2023 Australian Open, 2023 Wimbledon)
- Sets Won/Lost: 10-0
- Time Spent on Court: 6 hours, 55 minutes
Outlook: Pegula has been one of the elite performers in women’s tennis over the last few years—finishing at No. 3 in 2022 and No. 5 in 2023—but had struggled at the business end on the biggest stages, routinely stymied in the quarterfinal round at the Slams. She emphatically changed that narrative Wednesday evening, snapping an 0-for-6 showing in the Round of 8 at majors by dismissing world No. 1 and 2022 US Open champion Iga Swiatek in two tidy sets, 6-2, 6-4. That performance was the continuation of an outstanding summer for the 30-year-old Buffalo native. She entered the Open fresh off titles in Berlin and Toronto and a runner-up showing in Cincinnati, and has cruised through this fortnight, having been extended past 6-4 in a set only once in 10 stanzas (a 7-6 first-set victory over Sofia Kenin in the second round).
Pegula will enter Thursday’s nightcap as the favorite against the unseeded Karolina Muchova; the pair have faced off just once in their careers, but it was recent: a 5-7, 6-4, 6-2 win for the American in the second round in Cincinnati.
Seed/Rank: 13/12
Next Opponent: No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka
Best US Open Result: SF (2024)
Previous Best US Open Result: 1R (2022-23)
Best Grand Slam Result: SF (2024 US Open)
Previous Best Grand Slam Result: QF (2024 Wimbledon)
Sets Won/Lost: 10-2
Time Spent on Court: 7 hours, 19 minutes
Outlook: Navarro has added to her storybook season with a breakout US Open. The 2021 NCAA champion for the University of Virginia has enjoyed a rapid rise up the rankings, going from No. 127 at the end of 2022 to No. 32 at year-end 2023 (her first full season on tour). She will soar into the Top 10 following the Open, and she’s getting better, seemingly, with every tournament, progressing from the fourth round at Roland Garros to the Wimbledon quarterfinals, and now, into the US Open semifinals. Her sturdy baseline game, relentless competitiveness and litany of big-match wins are sure-fire indicators that this season is no fluke.
She unseated defending champion Gauff in the fourth round here, after beating her in the same round at Wimbledon, and this year alone owns victories over Top 20 players Jasmine Paolini, Keys and Marta Kostyuk, in addition to her two wins over Gauff. At this year’s Open she has navigated a tricky draw with aplomb, dropping just two sets in five matches and spending a reasonable 7 hours, 19 minutes on court.
That should leave plenty in the tank for her semifinal matchup against No. 2 Sabalenka.
- Seed/Rank: --/52
- Next Opponent: No. 6 Jessica Pegula
- Best US Open Result: SF (2023-24)
- Best Grand Slam Result: F (2023 French Open)
- Sets Won/Lost: 10-0
- Time Spent on Court: 7 hours, 1 minute
Outlook: From a seed and ranking perspective, Muchova would qualify as a surprise semifinalist. But from a talent or experience perspective, that is hardly the case. The former Top 10 performer advanced to this same round in this same location a year ago, when she fell to eventual champion Coco Gauff in a competitive two-setter. Overall, this is Muchova’s fourth career Grand Slam semifinal, her two US Open Round-of-4 showings standing alongside a run to the Australian Open semis in 2021 and the French Open final a year ago.
Unfortunately for the 28-year-old Czech, she has been beset by injuries in recent years—a litany of them cost her much of the 2022 season, and right wrist surgery kept her out for the early part of 2024. That time off, plus a first-round loss at Wimbledon, knocked Muchova out of the Top 50, but she has quickly rebuilt her game since that time, reaching the final in Palermo in July and going on a tear at this year’s Open: Her run to the semifinals featured victories over two-time US Open champion Osaka, world No. 38 Anastasia Potapova, 2024 French Open and Wimbledon finalist Paolini, and No. 22 seed Beatriz Haddad Maia—all without dropping a set.
