World No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka has stormed through five rounds of the US Open. She’s only lost a single set, and all of the others have been lopsided affairs. The big-hitting 6-footer is looking dominant and downright intimidating.
In the semifinal on Thursday night, Sabalenka goes up against a relative newcomer, 23-year-old American Emma Navarro. The latter may be small in stature at just 5-foot-7, but the New York City-born NCAA champion hasn’t seemed cowed by anything in her relentless path to the top. Not by her first time as a seeded player here. Not by her first time to play in Arthur Ashe Stadium (and against Coco Gauff at that). And, if I had to guess, probably not by an enormous opportunity to make her first career Slam final. Even if she needs to beat the game’s second-ranked woman to do it.
So that’s an excellent start, not being intimidated by the player or the occasion. But there’s more to beating a slugger like Sabalenka.
With apologies to Rodgers and Hammerstein, and the soundtrack of “The Sound of Music” (and youngsters everywhere, who will be befuddled by this reference), the American will face a conundrum many have faced before her: “How do you solve a problem like Aryna?”
When Navarro and Sabalenka meet at the net for the coin toss, the match will have the feel of a prize fight, but it may look to the uninitiated like a contest between a heavyweight and a featherweight.
This is not the first meeting for the two. Navarro and Sabalenka have met twice in 2024, and the American won their first bout, at a big tournament on hard courts: Indian Wells in March, in three sets. Sabalenka got her revenge on clay at Roland Garros just three months later, winning in two comfortable sets.
A lot can be learned from that recent head-to-head. For one–and this may just be the most important of all: Navarro knows that she is capable of beating Sabalenka–and, crucially, on the same surface on which she faces her at the US Open.
Despite her relative inexperience on the biggest stages of tennis, Navarro brings attributes in both her game and demeanor that give her more than a puncher’s shot to topple Sabalenka in the US Open semi.
With her gargantuan groundstrokes and towering serve, Sabalenka bullies opponents around the court. Navarro is more than capable of counterpunching and playing great defense, but she can also strike when the opportunity presents itself. She will need patience to pick those moments.
Navarro boasts great anticipation and wheels; court coverage will be key. She is eminently capable of taking the ball right off the bounce, from deep, with her great hands. Her game has nice variety; Navarro can really change the rhythm of rallies with different spins, speeds and angles. She also has a nice little drop shot and can handle herself well at the net. Adding those dimensions will keep Sabalenka guessing.
Navarro is good about hugging the baseline and blunting opponents’ power, waiting for the moment to step in and go on the offensive herself, but she is susceptible to barrages of power. At all costs she has to avoid making this a bang-bang contest.
Apart from Xs and Os, Navarro will need to lean heavily on what she brings to the court: steely determination and confidence. Navarro trusts her game and teems with self belief. Though she fell behind 1-5 in the second set of her quarterfinal against Paula Badosa, a former world No. 2, on Tuesday, Navarro said immediately after the match, “I had an inkling that when I got back to 5-2, I could win it in straight sets.” She then reeled off six straight games, including 24 of the final 28 points, to advance to her first career semi at a major.
That’s some crazy confidence.
A complement to that confidence will be another distinctive Navarro trait: composure. She is innately calm and cool. “I’m just naturally very chill,” she said.
She will need every ounce of poise against Sabalenka, who will seek to blow her off the court. When Sabalenka is playing confidently and her shots are landing, she can be unstoppable. But she has the tendency to be the polar opposite of Navarro: highly emotional. If things take a bad turn and she gets frustrated, her emotions can get the best of the No. 2 and she can become suddenly erratic. Sabalenka’s big groundstrokes can begin to misfire and–while she seems to have solved her serving problems of the past–in years past Sabalenka has been beset by serious cases of the “yips” on her serve.
Finally, the American will have one huge advantage in the match. Navarro will be playing in Arthur Ashe Stadium in front of a home crowd, in the city in which she was born. The 13th seed will be the decided underdog, and Americans love their homegrown underdogs. While fans are still just getting to know her, Navarro will be the overwhelming sentimental favorite.
That has the potential to unnerve Sabalenka. On Tuesday night after her quarterfinal rout of the Chinese player Zheng Qinwen, Sabalenka (facetiously, one supposes) offered to buy the crowd drinks in exchange for its support going forward. Unless she follows through on that offer, I can’t imagine Sabalenka is going to be the one with the crowd behind her on Thursday night.
Navarro’s upward trajectory over the past year has been basically straight up: From No. 147 in early 2023 to No. 60 a year ago, the American will enter the Top 10 for the first time after the Open concludes.
Will she find a way to solve Sabalenka and climb higher still, advancing to her first slam final? Navarro seed is making believers of both fans and tennis insiders.
Brad Gilbert, the coach and prognosticator who sits in the box of Coco Gauff, whom Navarro beat in the fourth round, knows what the 23-year-old is capable of. He calls this match a “pick’em.”
