The 2024 US Open men’s draw started with three overwhelming favorites: top seed Jannik Sinner, defending champion Novak Djokovic and 2022 winner Carlos Alcaraz. By Friday evening, the latter two were gone, Alcaraz toppled by Botic van de Zandschulp and Djokovic vanquished by Alexei Popyrin.
The vagaries of an Olympic summer that ushered the top players from the Parisian clay to the Wimbledon grass back to the Roland Garros clay (for the Olympics) and then to the summer hard-court season proved an arduous journey. And they were finally done in by the US Open, the toughest two weeks in tennis once again living up to its moniker.
Plenty of elite talent endures, though only one, Daniil Medvedev, has ever before lifted the trophy at the end of a Flushing fortnight.
With that, let’s take a look at the remaining contenders, how they got here and their road to the 2024 US Open men’s singles championship:
- Seed/Rank: 1/1
- Next Opponent: No. 5 Daniil Medvedev
- Best US Open Result: QF (2022, 2024)
- Best Grand Slam Result: W (2024 Australian Open)
- Sets Won/Lost: 12-1
- Time Spent on Court: 8 hours, 38 minutes
Outlook: Sinner has dutifully tuned out the noise and taken care of business thus far, cruising into the quarters with only a single set surrendered (his first one played this tournament, in fact) and buoyed by an impressive performance in a physical, 7-6(3), 7-6(5), 6-1 fourth-round win over Tommy Paul. Sinner got a bit of a reprieve from a brutal draw when potential semifinal opponent Carlos Alcaraz went down in Round 2, but it’s still a tough climb for the Italian. He’ll face 2021 US Open champion and five-time Grand Slam hard-court finalist Daniil Medvedev on Wednesday, an early meeting for arguably the two remaining title favorites. A victory there, though, and Sinner will be the consensus pick to reach his first US Open final against either Alex de Minaur or Jack Draper.
- Seed/Rank: 4/4
- Next Opponent: No. 12 Taylor Fritz
- Best US Open Result: F (2020)
- Best Grand Slam Result: F (2020 US Open, 2024 French Open)
- Sets Won/Lost: 12-3
- Time Spent on Court: 11:31
Outlook: Two years after a gruesome ankle injury, Zverev is back at the very top of the game. He will rise to No. 2 in the rankings at the end of this year’s US Open and has his sights set on a third Grand Slam final—second of the season—and an elusive first Grand Slam title. In the absence of defending champion Novak Djokovic, the German is the favorite to advance from the bottom half of the draw. To reach the championship match, he’ll need to avenge a loss to Taylor Fritz suffered in the fourth round at Wimbledon. Overall, Zverev is 5-4 versus Fritz in their careers, with the two trading wins and losses in their last eight encounters. Through four rounds, Zverev hasn’t had any real scares at this year’s US Open, but he has gone four sets in three of his four matches, so fatigue that could be a factor should he continue to advance.
- Seed/Rank: 5/5
- Next Opponent: No. 1 Jannik Sinner
- Best US Open Result: W (2021)
- Best Grand Slam Result: W (2021 US Open); F (2019 US Open, 2021-22, 2024 Australian Open)
- Sets Won/Lost: 12-1
- Time Spent on Court: 8:46
Outlook: The 2021 champion is getting better as the tournament progresses, winning in increasingly convincing fashion with each successive round. That ensures he should have plenty left in the tank for a run at a second Flushing crown, in the major venue where he is perhaps most comfortable. Including this year, Medvedev has reached at least the US Open quarterfinals in five of his last six appearances, going 4-0 in his prior quarterfinal matches. Next up is a blockbuster against top seed Jannik Sinner, who stormed back from two sets down to upend Medvedev at this year’s Australian Open final. Medvedev leads their head-to-head series, 7-5, and exacted a level of revenge with a quarterfinal victory at Wimbledon earlier this summer, but Sinner has won their last five matches on hard courts.
- Seed/Rank: 9/9
- Next Opponent: No. 20 Frances Tiafoe
- Best US Open Result: SF (2019)
- Best Grand Slam Result: SF (2014 Wimbledon, 2017 Australian Open, 2019 US Open)
- Sets Won/Lost: 12-2
- Time Spent on Court: 9:14
Outlook: Dimitrov is enjoying a career resurgence at age 33, on pace for his first year-end Top 10 finish since he wrapped 2017 at No. 3 in the world and into multiple Grand Slam quarterfinals in a single season (he reached the Round of 8 at Roland Garros as well) for the first time since 2014. And he is playing some of his best tennis this fortnight; the Bulgarian advanced to the fourth round without surrendering a set and edging good friend and No. 6 seed Andrey Rublev in five sets at that stage. So, while there might be some residual fatigue from that 3-hour, 39-minute battle, Dimitrov should be relatively fresh when he faces home-country favorite Frances Tiafoe for a spot in his first Grand Slam semifinal in five years.
- Seed/Rank: 10/10
- Next Opponent: No. 25 Jack Draper
- Best US Open Result: QF (2020, 2024)
- Best Grand Slam Result: QF (2020 US Open, 2024 French Open, 2024 Wimbledon, 2024 US Open)
- Sets Won/Lost: 12-3
- Time Spent on Court: 11:32
Outlook: De Minaur is enjoying a true breakout season in his eighth year on tour, rising into the Top 10, posting career-best showings at all four majors and winning two titles in three finals. The Aussie had to retire before his quarterfinal match at Wimbledon against Novak Djokovic with a hip injury, but he has shown no ill effects this tournament, his first since the All England Club.
One of the best returners and fleetest players on tour, he has thrived with concrete under his feet through the first week, stretched to four sets on three occasions but never in real danger of being toppled. He’ll need to be at his defensive best in the next round against the ascending Jack Draper; he leads the Brit head-to-head, 3-0, though all three were competitive affairs.
- Seed/Rank: 12/12
- Next Opponent: No. 4 Alexander Zverev
- Best US Open Result: QF (2023-24)
- Best Grand Slam Result: QF (2022 Wimbledon, 2023 US Open, 2024 Australian Open, 2024 Wimbledon, 2024 US Open)
- Sets Won/Lost: 12-1
- Time Spent on Court: 8:43
Outlook: With a second consecutive run to the US Open Round of 8, Fritz becomes the first American man to reach three Grand Slam quarterfinals in a single season (Australian Open, Wimbledon, US Open) since Andy Roddick in 2007 and the first male player hailing from the U.S. to reach the second week of all four majors in the same year since Andre Agassi in 2003—all heady territory for the 26-year-old. Fritz is 0-4 in his previous quarterfinal encounters, however, putting extra pressure on the American at his home Slam. Slated to face No. 4 seed Zverev Tuesday afternoon, he does not have an easy draw, but Fritz should be fresh entering the contest, dropping just one set en route and logging fewer than nine hours on court.
- Seed/Rank: 20/20
- Next Opponent: No. 9 Grigor Dimitrov
- Best US Open Result: SF (2022)
- Best Grand Slam Result: SF (2022 US Open), QF (2019 Australian Open)
- Sets Won/Lost: 11-4
- Time Spent on Court: 11:57
Outlook: Once again, Tiafoe has brought his very best tennis to New York. In his non-US Open majors, the Maryland native has reached the fourth round or better twice in 23 attempts. In Flushing Meadows, he has done so five times in his last five tries, including three consecutive years into the Round of 8. His draw to this stage has been challenging: Tiafoe had to battle past No. 13 seed Ben Shelton in a four-hour five-setter in the third round, and he needed four sets against Aleksandar Kovacevic in the first round and versus No. 28 Alexei Popyrin in the fourth round. A retirement early in the third set of his second-round match against Alexander Shevchenko saved some wear and tear, and more than any player remaining, Tiafoe feeds off the home crowd. So, don’t expect conditioning to be a factor in the quarters against Grigor Dimitrov, but it could be an issue should Tiafoe continue to move forward.
- Seed/Rank: 25/25
- Next Opponent: No. 10 Alex de Minaur
- Best US Open Result: QF (2024)
- Previous Best US Open Result: R4 (2023)
- Best Grand Slam Result: QF (2024 US Open)
- Previous Best Grand Slam Result: R4 (2023 US Open)
- Sets Won/Lost: 12-0
- Time Spent on Court: 7:07
Outlook: Statistically speaking, Draper has been the most dominant of any man to this stage. He has yet to surrender a set (the only of the eight remaining who can make that claim), has not been pushed beyond 6-4 in any of the dozen frames he’s contested and has logged just over seven hours on court, by far the least of the advancing octet (by roughly an hour-and-a-half). This run of form has been the continuation of a strong summer for the 22-year-old, who has long been billed as the next great British hope: He entered the Open coming off his first career title in Stuttgart and runs to the quarters at Queen’s Club and in Cincinnati.
He is, however, the least experienced of the men’s quarterfinalists, having advanced past the second round at a Grand Slam just twice previously in his young career: a third-round showing at the US Open in 2022 and a fourth-round finish in New York a year ago.
