WHAT HAPPENED: No. 6 seed Andrey Rublev had beaten Arthur Rinderknech in their two previous meetings: in last year’s US Open in four sets and in Washington this year in two, both times in the third round. He survived a five-setter this time 4-6, 5-7, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2 as Rinderknech emerged with an aggressive strategy of going all-out on his serves and returns and especially attacking Rublev’s weak second serve. After losing the first two sets, Rublev eventually found his groove in the third and fourth, both of which Rinderknech all but conceded once he got down two breaks in each. And Rublev’s groove continued in the deciding fifth, just past the four-hour mark, which proved too much for the weary Frenchman.
The first set was even statistically with unforced errors 10-10 and winners 17 to 15 in the slight favor of Rinderknech. But after the Frenchman, who played collegiately at Texas A&M, broke Rublev in game three, he seemed to have Rublev constantly on the defensive with deep groundstrokes and hard serves drawing easy-to-put-away floating returns. He feasted on Rublev’s second serves, often running around them to rip forehand winners. Rinderknech answered a Rublev break at 4-4 to go up 5-4, as Rublev threw his racquet to the ground as he had been threatening to do the whole set. Rinderknech served out the set on his second set point.
The second set started with easy holds through the first three games, the last of which was briefly interrupted by a medical emergency in the stands. Rublev broke Rinderknech in the fourth game and let out a roar as he went up 3-1. His enthusiasm would be short-lived. The next game’s highlight was a 37-stroke rally that for once had Rinderknech scrambling on defense from one side of the court to the other. He lost the point and collapsed at the baseline, but both players earned a standing ovation from the crowd—and a slight rest in the 90-degree heat.
The winning point was indicative of the players’ fortunes. Long points favored Rublev, but Rinderknech was determined to keep points short and mostly succeeded with penetrating serves and punishing forehand returns. The two players traded breaks and holds—with Rinderknech fighting off two set points—to reach 5-5. On Rublev’s serve, Rinderknech kept capitalizing on Rublev’s second serve and broke again. Riding that momentum, he served out the set at love. The winner totals told the story for that set, 20 for Rinderknech to 9 for Rublev.
In both the third and fourth sets, Rinderknech quickly got down two breaks and seemed to want to conserve his effort for a fifth. The players took a 10-minute heat break after the third, but Rublev seemed more revived by it, sharpening his first serve and so not giving Rinderknech as many opportunities to tee off on his second.
Given the two previous sets, it seemed crucial that Rinderknech win his serve to start, and he toughed it out, fighting off a break point. Rublev continued cracking his first-serve after he found his rhythm with it in the third and fourth sets. In the fifth set, Rinderknech was constantly tested on his serve, while Rublev continued the pinpoint serving he established in the third and fourth to cruise to the end.
WHAT IT MEANS: There is one career stat for Rublev that cuts two ways: on the positive side, he has advanced to the quarterfinals in 10 majors; on the other hand, he has never advanced past the quarters in a major, remarkable for a player who has maintained a Top Ten end-of-year ranking for five years. In the first two sets, Rinderknech exposed and took advantage of one of Rublev’s major weaknesses: when his first serve is off, he’s vulnerable. He’s also had a difficult up-and-down year. After making the quarters at the Australian Open, he was controversially defaulted in the Dubai semifinal for unsportsmanlike conduct. After that he lost four of his next five matches before righting his ship with a win in Madrid, beating Carlos Alcaraz and making the final in Montreal. Will the roller-coaster continue to go up?
MATCH POINT: In the third round, Rublev will play Jiri Lehecka, who also came back from two sets down. He’ll need to improve his first-serve percentage, which was only 54%.
