The rivalry between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, now poised to become one of the defining tennis storylines of the next decade, already includes seven matches of supreme quality and drama. This month, the riveting rivalry will also play out in the ATP rankings.
The head-to-head between the two young stars began in 2021 and produced one of the all-time great US Open matches in 2022, when Alcaraz prevailed in a record-late 2:50 a.m. finish after five hours, 14 minutes in Arthur Ashe Stadium.
At the time of that New York quarterfinal showdown, Alcaraz was ranked world No. 4 and Sinner was No. 14. Days later, Alcaraz went on to win his maiden Grand Slam title and rise to the top of the ATP rankings for the first time.
The Spaniard would finish 2022 as the year-end No. 1 and has not been ranked below No. 2 since, closing last season behind reigning US Open champion Novak Djokovic. But now Sinner is in pole position to overtake his rival for that second spot, fueled by his first major crown at the Australian Open and his 12th tour-level title in Rotterdam.
A perfect 12-0 this season, Sinner moved up to a new career-high of world No. 3 following his Rotterdam run in February. That made the 22-year-old the highest-ranked Italian in the history of both the ATP and WTA rankings, moving him ahead Adriano Panatta and Francesca Schiavone, who both peaked at No. 4.
But now the San Candido native has his sights set on passing Alcaraz. Because the 20-year-old Spaniard is defending 1,000 points as reigning champion at Indian Wells, Sinner is already ahead of him in the ATP's live rankings. That sets up a simple scenario in the desert: If the Italian can match or better his contemporary's tournament result, he will overtake him for world No. 2.
Sinner already leads Alcaraz in their on-court rivalry, holding a narrow 4-3 edge after wins in their past two encounters (Miami, Beijing). Just before that Miami meeting, Alcaraz beat Sinner on the first leg of the Sunshine Double, winning their Indian Wells semifinal en route to the California title.
Should the pair meet again this year in the desert, the showdown would double as a straight shootout for world No. 2. While Alcaraz remains ahead in the rankings, he told Marca that the Italian is currently the better player.
"If I want to match his level, I have to work hard because right now he's the one who's better," Alcaraz said, translated from Spanish. "It's good for tennis that there's another young player like him who wins Grand Slams."
Alcaraz added that he was not surprised by Sinner's AO breakthrough, calling the Italian a "hard worker." The two-time Grand Slam champion's respect for Sinner was also detailed by his coach, Juan Carlos Ferrero.
"The two of them have a super healthy, super good relationship," Ferrero told Marca. "Carlos sees the things that Jannik does well and they will feed off each other's level.
"Jannik is a player who has been pursuing his goals for the last two years, whatever they were... What Sinner’s team thought they needed to be improved, they went for it. A couple of seasons ago he played a lot cross-court, few drop shots, went up to the net less... He has been investing to increase his repertoire of shots and at a tactical level."
As both young stars continue to raise the bar, they will inevitably be measured against Djokovic, who holds a narrow head-to-head lead against both men (4-3 vs. Sinner, 3-2 vs. Alcaraz). The Serbian's lead in the ATP rankings is more substantial—and likely won't be shrinking any time soon. Because he missed the Sunshine Double last season, Djokovic is not defending any points in Indian Wells or Miami, setting up an opportunity to add more daylight between him and the young challengers.
Rounding out the very top of the ATP rankings picture is 2021 US Open champion and 2023 finalist Daniil Medvedev at world No. 4. The 28-year-old is far closer to Sinner and Alcaraz ahead of him than he is to Andrey Rublev, Alexander Zverev and the rest of the chasing pack behind.
On the WTA side, Iga Swiatek has not relinquished the No. 1 ranking since she reclaimed it from Aryna Sabalenka in November. The Pole is currently more than 1,300 points clear of No. 2 Sabalenka and more than 3,100 points clear of No. 3 Coco Gauff and No. 4 Elena Rybakina.
Swiatek will bid to back up semifinalist points in Indian Wells but has nothing to defend in Miami after missing out with a rib injury last season. The 22-year-old owns a 14-2 record this year, including a title in Doha last month.
Main-draw action at the 2024 BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells begins Wednesday, with the draw to be released Monday.
