Daniil Medvedev, meet Francis Bacon.
Running counter to the advice any coach or sports psychologist would prescribe, Medvedev, the No. 3 player in the world and now four-time Grand Slam finalist, admitted that he came into tonight’s US Open semifinal with a slight crisis in confidence, given the last two times he matched up with semifinals dance partner for the evening, world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz.
Whether he knew it or not before the match, Medvedev’s uncertainties planted the seeds to prove the words of the 17th century philosopher prophetic.
If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts; but if he will be content to begin with doubts, he shall end with certainties.
We are certain now that Medvedev will play for a second US Open championship after downing the Spaniard 7-6(3), 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 inside of a raucous atmosphere inside Arthur Ashe Stadium on Friday night. Instead of the dream matchup of Alcaraz versus Novak Djokovic to complete a Grand Slam trilogy in 2023, a reprise of the 2021 final will take place on Sunday, with Medvedev, who defeated Djokovic in that 2021 final, hoping to become one of the few players outside during the Big Four era (Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Andy Murray) to win multiple Grand Slam championships.
The reason for those pregame jitters were justified: Alcaraz had won the last two head-to-head meetings, both earlier this year, and had not lost more than three games in any of the five combined sets. One of the matchups took place at a major, with Alcaraz summarily dispatching his counterpart on Centre Court in the Wimbledon semifinals.
So when was that exact moment when Medvedev's doubts started turning into certainties tonight? In a match that produced exquisite shot-making and extended rallies that routinely drew thunderous applause, Medvedev started to gain confidence in those exchanges, even if he came up on the short end.
“There were some points I lost, but after the point I was, like, wow, I have caught some balls that were really tough,” a smiling Medvedev said. “I was like, okay, that's good. That means that [the] next point, I can do the same. Maybe either he's going to miss or I could make a better shot. I was in the zone.”
He certainly was in the zone at the end of the first set and going into the second, at one point winning 16 of 19 points—including winning the first-set tiebreak 7-3—on his way to opening up a 3-0 lead in the second.
No matter how many questions Medvedev might have in his mind going into a match, what he can rely on is feeding off a rowdy crowd, which was at a fever pitch midway through the fourth set. Up 3-2, Medvedev toughed out the seven-deuce game to finally break for 4-2, and after Alcaraz had pumped up the crowd a couple of times to help him try and hold, Medvedev did the same once he secured the break that, for intents and purposes, clinched the match.
“When I won [that game], I was like,’ Let's go, try to finish the match,’” Medvedev said. “I managed to do it. As I said, the crowd was unbelievable today. I felt like the energy was special.”
Medvedev came into the match with four US Open semifinal appearances to his credit, and even though the self-proclaimed hard-court specialist went down against Alcaraz on the slower hard courts of Indian Wells in the championship match, the New York City courts have continued to be a happy hunting ground for Medvedev.
“The thing is [the] US Open, and I don't really know the reason, I tend to play aggressive, fast, I serve well,” the No. 3 seed said. “Probably the speed of the court helps me. Like, Indian Wells, I mean, that I [reached] the final was amazing, because I basically can't hit the ball there. It has nothing to do, let's call it, with my forehand and so I beat some good guys there, some good matches, but as soon as I got someone like Carlos with his style of play, it was kind of over for me.
“So I'm happy that I managed to get in his head.”
Medvedev’s doubts were all in his head before his win, so what will his mindset be going into facing Djokovic in a Grand Slam for the third time?
“Novak, when he loses [to someone], he's never the same [in the next matchup]. So he's different,” Medvedev said. “It's just a different mentality. That's why he has 23 Grand Slams, whatever, Masters 1000s, weeks at No. 1. So I have to use it knowing that he's going to be 10 times better than he was that day [in 2021]. And I have to be, if I want to still beat him, [I have to be] 10 times better than I was that day. That's what I'm going to try to do.”
Be 10 times better than when defeating Djokovic. Many doubt that can happen, but going into a match with doubts may once again be step one toward more certainty—and a Grand Slam title.
