Why hasn't Novak Djokovic won more US Open titles?

It’s a mystery that demands exploration.

Novak Djokovic is arguably the greatest hard-court player of all-time. He is 10-0 in finals at the Australian Open, one of two Grand Slams played on hard courts, and he’s won 85% of the tour-level hard-court matches he’s played.

So why doesn’t he have more US Open titles? Djokovic has won only 33% (3-6) of his US Open finals, his worst finals winning percentage of any of the four major championships.

In Australia, he’s batting 1.000. At Roland Garros, where he’s had to contend with the King of Clay, Rafael Nadal, Djokovic is 3-4 in finals (43%). At Wimbledon, he’s 7-2 (79%).

“It’s insane,” Brad Gilbert, former coach of Andre Agassi, Andy Roddick and Andy Murray, and current coach of Coco Gauff, told USOpen.org.

It might be one of those statistics that defy any explanation. But, depending on who you talk to, a different theory emerges. Djokovic, for his part, suggests it could be the timing of the US Open.

“The fact that it's in the end of the season in a way, end of the Grand Slam season … It's been eight tough months of tennis for all the players,” Djokovic said.

The US Open is the most unpredictable Grand Slam. It hasn’t seen a man win back-to-back singles titles in 15 years, the longest stretch of any of the four majors. It also has been the hardest Grand Slam for one man to dominate overall. Djokovic has won in Australia 10 times, Nadal has won Roland Garros 14 times, and Roger Federer has taken the Wimbledon title eight times.

But in the Open Era at the US Open, three men are tied at the top with only five titles: Jimmy Connors, Pete Sampras and Federer.

“This is, to me, the toughest physical Slam to win,” Gilbert said. “You have everything here, from extreme hot weather to it used to be way more windy in the stadium.”

Another potential reason: Djokovic has faced tougher competition in US Open finals than at any of the other major championships. In Australia, the average ranking of his final opponent has been 7.1; in Paris, 3.6; and at Wimbledon, 7.8.

But in New York, the average ranking of Djokovic’s opponents in the final has been 2.2. That's more than three times higher than the average ranking of his final opponent at the Australian Open and at Wimbledon.

“This is a surface that kind of lends itself–if you’re a great player, you’re great on this surface,” Gilbert said.

It’s not as if Djokovic has not played particularly worse in US Open finals compared to his other 26 Grand Slam finals. His break points saved and converted percentages, arguably the most important statistic in a tennis match, are nearly the same or better at the US Open compared to the other three major championships.

It might just be a case of luck, Gilbert said. Just as you have to be a little lucky to win all 10 of your Australian Open finals, maybe Djokovic has had an unbalanced share of misfortune in New York.

“Of course I'm disappointed with the overall game that I performed today. I know I could have and should have done better,” Djokovic said after losing to No. 2 Daniil Medvedev in the 2021 US Open final, when he was going for the calendar-year Grand Slam. “But it's sport, you know. You win some, you lose some.”

Brad Stine listens to all the theories and even proposes a couple of his own. But the former coach of No. 1 Jim Courier and current coach of American Tommy Paul isn’t buying any of them.

“I don't think it's anything that you can really pinpoint specifically,” Stine told USOpen.org. “You're trying to solve a riddle that's maybe unsolvable.”

Perhaps the best single explanation on offer is that Djokovic isn’t done yet. He’s a “young 36,” Gilbert said, and he could have another three to four more years of playing.

Say he wins three of the next four US Open titles. All of sudden, Djokovic goes from “struggling” at the US Open to passing Connors, Sampras, and Federer and ending his career as the greatest men’s singles champion at the US Open.

As Gilbert said, “His story is not finished being written.”