Tonight’s Round 4 matchup between No. 1 seed Iga Swiatek of Poland and No. 20 Jelena Ostapenko of Latvia will be one many will have their eyes on. Swiatek might be the presumed favorite given her dominance of the WTA Tour over the last couple of years.
But on paper, there’s a different story: Ostapenko has won all three of the pair’s previous meetings.
The 26-year-old Ostapenko’s first-strike tennis and incredible ball-striking from the baseline has troubled the reigning US Open champion in the past. Swiatek, the 22-year-old star, will have to solve the Ostapenko riddle under the lights in Arthur Ashe Stadium in order to take another step towards defending her title in New York.
Their last three meetings have come at very different times in their respective careers, especially for Swiatek. In their first meeting at Birmingham in 2019, Ostapenko was already a slam champion, winning Roland Garros in 2017. As for Swiatek, she was making her way into the Top 100 for the first time after spending a few years on the ITF circuit. Ostapenko easily won that match in straight sets, 6-0, 6-2.
For their second meeting at the fall edition of Indian Wells in 2021, the 2017 Roland Garros champion was coming off a great summer after some early exits in tournaments over the last year. As for the young Pole, she claimed her first-ever Grand Slam title at Roland Garros in fall 2020 and started coming into her own as a player.
This matchup would be their first on a hard court, and more competitive than their last, but Ostapenko once again prevailed in straight sets, 6-4, 6-3.
As for their last, and most, recent meeting in Dubai in 2022–a few short months after their Indian Wells meeting–it was a much tighter affair. Swiatek was finally able to grab the first set off the Latvian in this third meeting, attempting to do something different to throw off her opponent’s game. In the end, Ostapenko’s strong baseline rallies and firepower proved to be too much for Swiatek as she roared back and won the match 4-6, 6-1, 7-6(4).
After that loss, Swiatek quickly became a women’s tennis juggernaut going on a 37-match winning streak, earning six consecutive titles in Doha, Indian Wells, Miami, Stuttgart, Rome and Roland Garros.
She would go on to be the woman to beat as she also claimed victory here in New York, her first hard-court slam.
Both women have put together successful seasons this year. Ostapenko came into New York with a record of 31-16, winning a title in Birmingham, making the semifinals in Rome, and quarterfinals in Eastbourne and at the Australian Open.
As for Swiatek, her dominance continued as she came into the tournament with four titles and a season-leading record of 56-9.
Ostapenko and Swiatek also have had great wins at this year’s tournament so far. Ostapenko had some tough battles in her last three matches, but ultimately prevailed in each in three sets. As for Swiatek, she cruised through her first three matches with ease, winning without dropping a set.
In terms of total hours on court, Ostapenko has spent over two-and-a-half hours longer than the world No. 1, giving her a slight disadvantage when it comes to fatigue.
Their fourth meeting under the lights at Arthur Ashe Stadium will certainly be a tough battle for both.
