WHAT HAPPENED: Top American Jessica Pegula solved the riddle that is Elina Svitolina at Grand Slams in 2023, overcoming the No. 26 seed, 6-4, 4-6, 6-2, to reach Round 4 at the US Open for the second time. Svitolina’s exit means Caroline Wozniacki is the only mother left in the women’s singles draw.
Coming into the match, Pegula led her head-to-head with Svitolina 3-1 and had captured their sole meeting at a major, at the Australian Open in 2021. But two of those three victories—including the one Down Under—went the distance, and the Ukrainian has proven to be unflappable in Grand Slam matches since her recent return to the tour, reaching the French Open quarterfinals on a protected ranking and taking out world No. 1 Iga Swiatek en route to making her second Wimbledon semifinals appearance.
Theoretically, the outcome of this matchup hinged on who could transform herself into a more effective human backboard. In the early stages, Svitolina was winning this battle, claiming most of the extended rallies and keeping her unforced error count low, while Pegula reached double digits in that metric after just four games. But the American employed her serve more effectively, created more opportunities and hit more winners. Svitolina, conversely, double faulted twice in a game and struggled to win points on her second serve. Pegula broke in the fifth game with a return winner and never looked back, claiming the first set in 40 minutes without ever facing a break point on her own serve.
In the second, Svitolina lifted her serving percentage and stayed even with the world No. 3 for the first nine games. Serving at 5-4, Pegula struggled to make a first serve. Svitolina capitalized and earned three set points in a row. She’d only need two, forcing an error off her opponent’s racquet with a hard shot down the middle to take it to a decider.
The beginning of the third set presented a wholly different Svitolina from the outset of the match. She reigned in her shots and began to hit with more authority, and the momentum seemed firmly in her corner. Pegula was made to work, but held serve to even the score to 2-2. The American let out a large yell, then broke her opponent in the next game with some incredible shotmaking of her own, including an Andy Murray-esque lob. Even as Svitolina’s level stayed high, Pegula matched the Ukrainian’s intensity. She earned another break point at 4-2 off her fifth return winner of the match and easily converted. From there, she capably served out the set to claim the match.
WHAT IT MEANS: At least one American is now guaranteed to reach the quarterfinals, as Pegula next faces No. 17 seed Madison Keys in Round 4. Interestingly, the two have played just once, with Pegula besting the 2017 US Open runner-up in straight sets in a tournament in San Diego last September.
MATCH POINT: How clutch was Pegula on her service games? She was broken just once in the match and served nine aces.
