WHAT HAPPENED: Pablo Carreno Busta is hitting top form in New York, playing the type of relentless tennis that saw him win the biggest title of his long career in August at the Montreal ATP Masters 1000. Or perhaps more relevant this fortnight, the sort of ball that propelled him to a pair of US Open semifinal showings in 2017 and 2020.
The 12th-seeded Spaniard was back to his best on Friday in the Grandstand as he downed Alex de Minaur in a 6-1, 6-1, 3-6, 7-6(5) victory. But a contest that looked destined to be a blowout turned into a thriller capped with a match-point tweener lob—and a racquet smash from a stunned de Minaur.
The two men possess similar games centered on relentless consistency, baseline aggression and supreme court coverage, but Carreno Busta has done it better in both of their meetings. He dropped just five games in their previous matchup at Roland Garros in 2019.
De Minaur did well to turn the third-round contest into a scrap, which it certainly was in a high-quality fourth set from both men. Carreno Busta took a medical timeout after dropping set three, during which his left leg was worked on, but opened the fourth with two love service holds. That set the tone for the set, with de Minaur also cruising on serve until he needed to save a match point in a three-deuce 12th game.
At the close of a gripping tiebreak in which neither man led by more than one point (until the end), Carreno Busta clinched victory with the shot of the match. After a rapid-fire exchange at net, de Minaur floated a ball past the Spaniard. Making a desperate retreat, Carreno Busta lofted a tweener lob that the Aussie could only nick with the top of his frame.
Carreno Busta's early success was built around his domination of the short rallies; he won exchanges of four shots or less by a 39-21 margin in the first two sets. He was also better at creating and converting on break points throughout the match, saving three of de Minaur's four break chances while converting on five of his 10—though he went 0-for-3 across the final two sets.
De Minaur picked up his aggression in the third set, winning 11 of 13 net points as he changed the mood of the match, but Carreno Busta commanded the frontcourt in the final set by claiming all nine of his net points.
WHAT IT MEANS: Carreno Busta continues his progress through a difficult draw despite his status at the No. 12 seed. The Spaniard earned four-set wins against 2020 US Open champion Dominic Thiem in Round 1 and the dangerous Alexander Bublik in Round 2. It's a very different path than the one he conquered on his way to the 2017 US Open semifinal, when he became the first player to face four qualifiers at a Grand Slam before bowing out against Kevin Anderson.
He reached the New York semifinals again in 2020, losing to Alexander Zverev in five sets after surrendering a two-set lead.
The Spaniard will now face 27th seed Karen Khachanov, who advanced past Jack Draper after the Briton retired late in the third set of their third-round meeting.
De Minaur, who earned his best Grand Slam result by reaching the 2020 US Open quarterfinals, was bidding to reach the fourth round at a major for the third time this sesaon after jaunts to the last 16 at the Australian Open and Wimbledon.
MATCH POINT: Both Carreno Busta and de Minaur entered the US Open five spots shy of their career-high ATP ranking. World No. 15 Carreno Busta reached No. 10 in 2017, while No. 20 de Minaur peaked at No. 15 last June.
