WHAT HAPPENED: What began as a one-sided rout and looming upset of sixth-seeded Aryna Sabalenka by 37-year-old giant-killer Kaia Kanepi turned into a nutty, unpredictable and drama-filled affair deep in the afternoon out on Court 5.
Kanepi steamrolled through the first set and was up 5-1 in the second when she quite suddenly lost her nerve and the entire plot, allowing Sabalenka back into the match by surrendering the next five games in a row. The Estonian collapsed yet again in the tiebreak, squandering a 5-2 advantage and two match points.
Out of nowhere, the reversal of fortunes injected drama late in a match where there had been none.
The match finally established some normalcy in the final set. Both Sabalenka and Kanepi ditched their nerves, and it was the more assertive sixth seed who seized the momentum and the match, 2-6, 7-6(8), 6-4. Well, the normalcy was relative. Serving for the match, Sabalenka threw in three double faults—and still held serve and advanced on her third match point.
Kaia Kanepi may be the second-oldest woman left in the draw at 37, but she’s not an opponent any top seed wants to see across the net. Especially in the early rounds of a Slam.
Kanepi of Estonia has a penchant for scoring big upsets, and she’s been especially brutal in the first two rounds of majors. The veteran has notched seven Top 10 wins in the sport’s biggest tournaments in the opening two rounds.
This matchup between two towering, bruising ballstrikers, both 5-foot-11, had upset potential all over it. Not only because of Kanepi’s history of claiming Top 10 victims, but due to a lopsided recent head-to-head.The Estonian, ranked No. 34, had beaten the sixth-ranked Sabalenka the two times they’ve met—both on hard courts in the last two years.
Sabalenka can be erratic when she’s not connecting with her big groundies and powerful serve, and that was certainly the case for much of Thursday. The sixth seed looked completely out of sorts for most of the first two sets, misfiring from every part of the court.
On the ropes and seemingly just moments from a KO, though, Sabalenka shockingly recovered and turned things around. She survives and moves on to the third round.
WHAT IT MEANS: Sabalenka is a two-time Slam semifinalist, including at the 2021 US Open (she is now 12-4 in New York). The former world No. 2 has 10 career titles, but has yet to advance to a major final. Sabalenka suddenly finds herself in a wide-open section of the draw, decimated by the defeats of last year’s champion Emma Raducanu and two-time winner Naomi Osaka. Opportunity awaits, with 19th seed Danielle Collins the only seed standing in the way of a quarterfinal appearance.
Kanepi’s age may be lost in the Serena shuffle, but the former Top 20 veteran has been playing excellent ball at her relatively advanced age. Kanepi came into the US Open having reached the final at Washington, D.C., where she lost to the red-hot Liudmila Samsonova. The Estonian has reached the quarterfinals at majors seven times in her career, including twice in Flushing, and she has done so at all four majors.
MATCH POINT: Perhaps this near-death experience for Sabalenka—in which she committed 11 double faults, 41 unforced errors and won seven fewer points than her opponent Kanepi—can be freeing and serve as a springboard. What they call house money.
