There are many ways to win a tennis match. During this year’s US Open, USOpen.org will be playing a numbers game, digging deeper into the statistical analysis of select matches to provide highlights, further insights, and data points on player performance.
Aryna Sabalenka reached the semi-finals for the second Grand Slam in a row after defeating Barbora Krejcikova in straight sets 6-1, 6-4. The 2019 US Open women's doubles champion was the more dominant player tonight, as highlighted by the breakdown of shots in offense / neutral / defense for both players:
- Sabalenka on offense: 30%
- Both players in neutral: 51%
- Krejcikova on offense: 19%
The US Open data analysis shows that players who spend between 10-15% more of the match in offense than their opponent win the match 83% of the time.
Watch: Sabalenka vs. Krejcikova, Quarterfinal Highlights
Sabalenka has spent a greater percentage of her matches on offense than any other woman since 2017.
Percentage of points played on offense (all WTA matches since 2017)
1. Aryna Sabalenka - 27%
2. Serena Williams - 27%
3. Petra Kvitova - 26%
How does Sabalenka control matches?
Sabalenka’s average first-serve speed is significantly higher than average, which allows her to contact 70% of her 3rd shots inside the baseline.
First Serve Speed
Aryna Sabalenka: 109mph
US Open Average: 98mph
The Belarusian is particularly destructive when the ball comes down the middle third of the court, winning 68% of those points, the most at this year’s US Open.
How do you beat Sabalenka?
At last year’s US Open, Victoria Azarenka showed what is possible if you can match Sabalenka’s aggression. Here are the numbers from that match:
- Sabalenka on offense: 22%
- Both players in neutral: 55%
- Azarenka on offense: 23%
Azarenka increased the percentage of shots Sabalenka played on defense, which proved crucial as the Belarusian only managed to win only 13% of these points. That will be the challenge that faces 19-year-old Leylah Fernandez in Thursday's semifinals.
