WHAT HAPPENED: Fifty-fifty.
You don’t often see a match forecast offering even odds. But before the Simona Halep versus Elena Rybakina contest began, IBM’s Watson declined to give the edge to either player.
Fair enough: Their head-to-head record is one match each—and neither player dropped a set on her way to Louis Armstrong Stadium on Friday. For her part, 30-year-old Halep, the No. 12 seed from Romania and former World No. 1, has played sparkling tennis this week—and says she’s unbothered by the injuries that have kept her from going deep into tournaments lately. Rybakina, the No. 19 seed from Kazakhstan, is surging, having made the second week at both the French Open and Wimbledon. And the 22-year-old just missed a medal at the Tokyo Olympics, placing fourth.
Experience versus youth? A veteran making a comeback versus a lower-ranked player on a hot streak? It was Halep who answered those questions, taking the tricky match, 7-6, 4-6, 6-3.
Rybakina rocked the match early on, throwing down two aces in her first service game. By contrast, Halep, who sported a bandage high around her right thigh, got off to a, well, rocky start, committing six unforced errors and going down 0-3 before the match was eight minutes old. Although Halep looked agitated, she managed to settle, lengthening the points and, finally, winning her serve.The younger player responded with shaky play of her own, giving back the break.
And so, a reset—and one that seemed to favor Halep, as Rybakina started to press, contributing a run of unforced errors of her own. It was clear Halep intended to dictate the pace with steady, strategic play. But Rybakina showed why she’s considered dangerous and put herself in position to serve for the match at 5-3. The Kazakhstani quickly fell behind, spraying errors and losing that game. Another reset at 5-5—and another chance for Rybakina to clean up her game and play higher-percentage tennis. She failed to take that chance, giving Halep her first lead.
Fittingly, the even-on-paper players would decide the opening set in a tiebreak. The psychologically tricky match led to an equally tricky breaker, which opened with a double fault from Rybakina, her first. Although Halep earned herself four set points, none of them went her way. At 9-8, Rybakina got a set point of her own, but an aggressive Halep shut her down. The seesaw continued until Halep reached her seventh set point. Rybakina double faulted, giving Halep the breaker, 13-11.
Halep experienced a letdown in the second set, slipping to a 0-3 deficit, just as she did in the opening set. But up 3-2, Rybakina called for a medical time out, receiving on-court attention to a foot. In the other chair, Halep got a shoulder rub, then trotted out to the baseline before time was called. Upon her return, Rybakina looked tense, tossing in three double faults to give up her advantage and even the match at 3-3. But she managed to regain her lead and take the second set, 6-4.
Again, the players were even-steven, one apiece. As in the prior sets, stepping up to serve seemed to put the players at a disadvantage. The women swapped breaks to even the score, 1-1. Not usually one to show enthusiasm, Halep treated herself to a fist pump when she held to go up 2-1 and a smile when she consolidated to serve at 3-1. She had more to smile about when she closed out the set, 6-3, and the match.
WHAT IT MEANS: Round 4 will likely be another hard-fought contest, played against the winner of the Round 3 match between No. 5 seed Elina Svitolina and No. 25 seed Daria Kasatkina from Russia. And not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but the road ahead could also mean a collision with Naomi Osaka, should the defending champion stay the course.
MATCH POINT: Rybakina has a lot more US Open play on tap. She’s teaming up with Russia’s Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova for doubles play. The Kazakhstani is also slated to compete in mixed-doubles play, pairing with countryman Andrey Golubev.
