"They are definitely knocking on the door big-time now."
That was Roger Federer's assessment of the "young guys" who are seeking to break the domination of the Big 3 at the majors. Speaking during US Open Media Day, the Swiss put the lack of new Grand Slam champions down more to the unprecedented dominance of himself, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal than any "problem" with the youth.
The ATP's Next Gen campaign has helped raise the profile of the game's rising stars. And while some have graduated from the 21-and-under class, the next generation at large is in as good a position as ever.
Five of the ATP's Top 10 are 25 or younger, including world No. 4 Dominic Thiem (25), No. 5 Daniil Medvedev (23), No. 6 Alex Zverev (22), No. 8 Stefanos Tsitsipas (21) and No. 9 Karen Khachanov (23).
Pictured: Daniil Medvedev and Dominic Thiem celebrate after they faced off in the Barcelona Open final, won by Thiem in April.
Borna Coric (22) and Felix Auger-Aliassime (19) are both Top-20 players, while Taylor Fritz (21), Nick Kyrgios (24), Kyle Edmund (24) and Cristian Garin (23) will also be seeded amongst the Top 32 this year in New York.
But after former US Open champs Juan Martin del Potro (2009) and Marin Cilic (2014) both turned 30 last September, there are no men's Grand Slam champions in their 20s.
Nadal won his first French Open at age 19 in 2005. Federer was 21 when he won his first Slam at Wimbledon in 2003. And Djokovic was 20 when he claimed the 2008 Aussie Open crown. With Federer the oldest, having turned 38 on Aug. 8, the trio have claimed each of the last 11 majors, since Stan Wawrinka upset Djokovic in the 2016 US Open final.
There are only seven active Grand Slam champions—the six mentioned plus Andy Murray, who filled out the "Big 4" until his recent injury woes. All seven have lifted at least one title in New York.
In the buildup to the 2019 tournament, USOpen.org's Who's 52 series has taken a close look at who might be the next first-time winner (man or woman) in New York.
Don't count out any of the young guys." —Alex Zverev
At the podium on media day, Zverev singled out Thiem and Medvedev as prime candidates.
"Don't count out any of the young guys," he said. "There are other guys apart from the Big 3 that can go deep here."
He was selling stock in himself after his sub-par summer, though that mentality could have a freeing effect on the German's game. With his three ATP Masters 1000 titles and career-high ranking of No. 3 (first achieved in 2017, and also held for long spells in 2018 and 2019), many were quick to annoint him the next king.
"It's the first time in probably a few years where I'm not a favorite in any way at a Grand Slam," he reflected, "and it takes some pressure off, as well. It's a different mindset for me now."
Medvedev, perhaps wary of the toll the added expectations took on his one-year-younger contemporary, deflected any suggestion that he was a favorite in New York.
"I don't consider myself as one of the favorites just because at this moment of my career I haven't even been in a quarterfinal of a Slam," he said, sharing that he would be "really happy" to reach the last eight in New York.
After a prolific US Open Series, in which he reached three consecutive finals (Washington, D.C., Montreal, Cincinnati) and won his first career Masters title in Cincinnati, few would pick against the freshly minted world No. 5 to accomplish that goal.
"The three weeks I made really pushed a lot my confidence," he said of the run during which he dropped just one set in 14 wins. "Now I know that when I play my best tennis I can beat basically everybody, and that's what I need to keep doing here."
Interestingly, the Russian faced both Nadal and Djokovic during that run, with drastically different results. He was taught a lesson by Nadal in the Rogers Cup final, falling 6-3, 6-0 in just over an hour. But one week later, in the Cincy semis, he fought out of any early hole against Djokovic to advance, 3-6, 6-3, 6-3, beating the Serb for the second time in their three 2019 meetings.
Of course, beating the Big 3 in a best-of-five match is a different animal; the stamina, both physical and mental, required at a Grand Slam is unique. Some experts, including Judy Murray, believe that the ubiquity of smartphones could be having a negative on-court effect for the generation of digital natives. The theory is that overreliance on these devices contributes to difficulty maintaining the sustained concentration needed to problem-solve throughout a five-set battle.
Whatever the reason, the generational wars are coming to a head. Will the aging Big 3 continue winning until they retire on top, gracefully ceding the Slams to new blood? Or will these youngsters step up now and knock them off their perch?
If it's to be the latter, it has to start with one young man at one Slam. Why not New York?
Video: John McEnroe weighs in on our "Who's 52?" debate.
