Are we in for a Rafael Nadal repeat? Is the seemingly ageless Roger Federer destined for a record sixth men's US Open trophy? How will former titlists Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka hold up given their recent injury woes? Can two-time winner Novak Djokovic sustain his resurgence? Or will a young gun like Alexander Zverev usher in a new era, breaking up the Grand Slam stranglehold of his aforementioned on-court colleagues?
Questions abound as we embark on this 50th anniversary edition of the US Open. We’ve had three different men's champions at the first three majors of the year: Australian Open (Federer), Roland Garros (Nadal) and Wimbledon (Djokovic). Should one of them raise the Tiffany & Co. hardware on Sept. 9 in Arthur Ashe Stadium, they would surely earn player-of-the-year status. As if the $3.8 million in prize money isn’t already incentive enough, that’s sure something to play for. USOpen.org takes a closer look at the draw:
TOP HALF
Rafael Nadal’s Quarter
Top seed and defending champ Nadal has never been one to shy away from a tough draw, but there must have been a collective sigh of relief amongst the Nadal camp upon learning that career-long rivals Federer and Djokovic both landed on the opposite side of the Mallorcan’s 2018 US Open draw.
Not that Nadal has an easy road. He’ll open against countryman and longtime Davis Cup teammate David Ferrer – a two-time semifinalist in Flushing Meadows (2007, 2012) – and could face American Jack Sock or Brit Kyle Edmund in the Round of 16. Beyond that lies a potential rematch of last year’s US Open final, this time in the quarters, as No. 5 seed Kevin Anderson also lurks in Nadal’s quadrant.
To get there, Anderson, a Wimbledon runner-up earlier this summer, would have to navigate the likes of Dominic Thiem, Denis Shapovalov and Andrey Rublev, or Americans Sam Querrey, Steve Johnson, Taylor Fritz and Ryan Harrison. After his run to the Toronto title, Nadal opted to sit out the Cincy Masters and arrives at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center rested and ready. That’s bad news for the opposition.
Juan Martin del Potro’s Quarter
Juan Martin del Potro’s improbable comeback from two sets down against Dominic Thiem was the match of the tournament in 2017; a 1-6, 2-6, 6-1, 7-6, 6-4 Grandstand stunner in which the ailing Argentine – barely able to remain upright in the early goings – saved two match points. (Delpo would go on to oust Federer in the quarterfinals.)
With his wrist woes behind him and again playing the kind of heavy-ball tennis that saw him capture the 2009 US Open, the No. 3 seed heads an intriguing quarter of the draw that features no less than three former singles champions – himself, Murray (2012) and Wawrinka (2016). But there are plenty of other obstacles here, too, including Borna Coric, Grigor Dimitrov, Milos Raonic, Miami/Atlanta champ John Isner and 20-year-old Greek sensation Stefanos Tsitsipas, who recently became the youngest competitor to defeat four straight Top-10 players at the same event since the ATP World Tour was established in 1990.
Dimitrov vs. wild card Wawrinka in the opening round? Del Potro vs. unseeded Murray in the third round? This quarter’s got it all.
BOTTOM HALF
Alexander Zverev’s Quarter
Sascha Zverev has done just about everything else but become a consistent second-week presence at the majors. In 2017, he downed Djokovic in Rome to become the youngest player since his vanquished opponent to win a Masters 1000 title in a decade. He subsequently bagged a second consecutive Masters 1000 trophy in Montreal, downing his childhood idol – Federer – in the process. His third Masters 1000 title came earlier this year in Madrid, where his serve was never broken and he didn’t drop a set.
But the 6-foot-6 wunderkind, ranked No. 4 in the world, has reached just one Slam quarterfinal (2018 Roland Garros) and is still finding his way at the sport’s Big Four events. “For some reason, he plays freer when he plays in the [Masters] 1000s and some of the smaller events than he does in the Slams,” said ESPN commentator Brad Gilbert this week. “He has to forget about the expectations and play the opponent on the other side of the net.”
Those early-round opponents could include 2014 finalist Kei Nishikori, Gael Monfils, David Goffin or Diego Schwartzman, with a potential quarterfinal matchup against 2014 champ and No. 7 seed Marin Cilic. The good news for Zverev is that he’s still young (21). There’s plenty of time for the German to make his mark at the Slams, and the 2018 US Open might just prove his coming-out party.
As Nadal said in May, “If he’s not playing well in Grand Slams in the next two years, you can come back to me and tell me, ‘You don’t know anything about tennis.’” (It’s safe to say the winner of 17 majors knows a thing or two about the game.)
Roger Federer’s Quarter
If there was a worst-case scenario for the No. 2-seeded Federer – now a decade removed from his last US Open title – it was winding up in the same quarter as Djokovic, who only days ago dispatched him in straight sets, 6-4, 6-4, in the Cincinnati final. But as fate would have it, that's just how it happened.
Djokovic’s return to the top of the sport has been downright miraculous when you look at just how far he had fallen over the past year and a half. Consider the Serb’s form at Indian Wells in March: having undergone elbow surgery at the beginning of the year, the two-time US Open champion (2011, 2015) looked so lost on the court that he was stunned by a No. 109-ranked qualifier, Japan’s Taro Daniel. Whether it was the physical setbacks or merely a spiritual walkabout, many wondered if one of the sport’s most dominant forces could ever regain his former machine-like form.
But Djokovic has sure silenced the critics. He captured his 13th Grand Slam title at Wimbledon in July, downing Anderson, and was simply dominant against Federer in Ohio, arriving in Flushing Meadows as perhaps the tournament favorite. Federer’s path to a quarterfinal against Djokovic could include a mouthwatering third-round encounter with the enigmatic but wildly talented Nick Kyrgios, and a Round-of-16 head-to-head with #NextGen standout Hyeon Chung or Fabio Fognini, who already owns three titles on the year (Sao Paulo, Bastad, Los Cabos). Djokovic, meanwhile, is facing a possible third-rounder against Richard Gasquet, followed by Lucas Pouille or Pablo Carreno Busta.
First-Rounders to Watch:
Stan Warinka vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Rafael Nadal vs. David Ferrer
Kevin Anderson vs. Ryan Harrison
Mischa Zverev vs. Taylor Fritz
Milos Raonic vs. Jared Donaldson
