Gael Monfils, a man of unique ability, finds himself with a rare opportunity. He and Kei Nishikori are the only players in the men’s seminfinals who haven’t already won a major title (the 10th seed Monfils had only been to one previous Slam semifinal in his 12 years on the pro tour, the 2008 French Open).
Nishikori, of course, made it to the final at the 2014 US Open. After upsetting Djokovic in the semifinal, the Japanese player lost in an unexpected final against Marin Cilic.
In a historic era dominated like no other by a tiny cadre of exceptional players, very few men have even had a sniff of a chance to break into the Slam winner's circle. Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray have combined to win 39 of the last 43 majors, dating back a decade to 2006. If you add Stan Wawrinka to the mix – a fifth member to the Big Four, the equivalent of counting the producer George Martin as the fifth Beatle – that number increases to 41 of the last 43 Slams.
The 2016 US Open is especially unique because there is no Federer, no Nadal and no Murray in the semifinals. The last major where those three were all absent from the semis was the 2004 French Open.
Only two tall, slender men, Juan Martin del Potro of Argentina (US Open 2019) and Marin Cilic of Croatia (US Open 2014), stand out as solitary Slam wonders in the last 10 years. You’d have to go back to 2003, the year of Federer’s first triumph at Wimbledon, to find other single-digit champs. That year, Juan Carlos Ferrero of Spain and Andy Roddick of the U.S. won their only majors, at the French and US Opens, respectively. And the next year, 2004, Gaston Gaudio proved to be a real outlier: the slight Argentine won the French Open without ever reaching so much as a Slam quarterfinal before or after.
On the women’s side, one-hit wonders are more common in recent history. Since 2006, there have been seven single-Slam winners: Ana Ivanovic (French Open 2008), Francesca Schiavone (French Open 2010), Samantha Stosur (US Open 2011), Marion Bartoli (Wimbledon 2013), Flavia Pennetta (US Open 2015), Angelique Kerber (Australian Open 2016) and Garbiñe Muguruza (French Open 2016).
Obviously, Kerber and Muguruza are still in or approaching the primes of their careers, ranked in the Top 5 in the world, and Kerber still has a shot to win her second Slam this week (as well as ascend to the top ranking).
If Karolina Plishkova were to pull off an upset in the semifinal and go on to win the US Open, this year would be a real anomaly, with three of four calendar Slams claimed by first-time winners. The last time that happened was 2004, when Anastasia Myskina won the French Open, Maria Sharapova won Wimbledon (the first of her five majors) and Svetlana Kuznetsova won her first championship at the US Open.
The women’s draw hasn’t been dominated by a handful of players to the extent that the men’s has, but it has seen the dominant presence of a single family: the Williamses. Serena and Venus Williams have combined to win 29 majors, including 17 since 2006.
Like "Hamilton" of the Broadway musical, Monfils, Nishikori, Plishkova and Wozniacki don't want to throw away their shot. If you root for underdogs, you know whom to back as the US Open reaches the money rounds.
