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(1) Novak Djokovic vs. Jerzy Janowicz
Djokovic begins his pursuit of a third US Open title – and third major of 2016 – against the big-serving big man from Poland. The 6-foot-8 Janowicz reached the semis at Wimbledon in 2013, so he is a dangerous floater, but the world No. 1 has made a career of unraveling the best servers in the game. Assuming his balky left wrist is OK, Djokovic wins in three comfortable sets.
(4) Rafael Nadal vs. Denis Istomin
The big thing to watch here is the state of Nadal’s left wrist. He looked solid at the Olympic Games in Rio, but prior to that, the left-hander hadn’t played since the French Open. Istomin is another dangerous floater with a big serve, and he could very well steal a set here – and maybe the match if Nadal isn’t 100 percent. Nadal in four.
(5) Milos Raonic vs. Dustin Brown
Brown is one of the most entertaining players in men’s tennis, with a quirky game that can give players fits. He can also be wildly inconsistent. Raonic has a very real chance to win this tournament and is in good form. He won’t waver in this matchup. Raonic in three.
(26) Jack Sock vs. Taylor Fritz
These two Americans – both billed as the future of U.S. men’s tennis – met in the first round of the Australian Open, with Sock pulling out a five-set win. Expect a similarly taut affair this time out. The 18-year-old Fritz has grown by leaps and bounds this year, while Sock is coming off an Olympic Games in which he was the only player to win two medals – gold in mixed, bronze in men’s doubles. American fans will hope to see these two playing in Week 2 soon, but for now, they’ll pack Louis Armstrong Stadium for this one on Day 1. In the end, the edge goes to experience, so Sock in four close sets.
WOMEN
(8) Madison Keys vs. Alison Riske
Keys enters the US Open with high expectations. She saw 22-year-old Garbiñe Muguruza win the French Open, and many believe the 21-year-old American can do the same here. Riske, however, is a tough opening act, having reached the round of 16 here in 2013. Expect Riske to push Keys, but it won’t be enough to claim a set. Keys in two tough ones.
(9) Svetlana Kuznetsova vs. Francesca Schiavone
These two veteran Grand Slam champions have played a couple of epic contests, including a 16-14 third set won by Schiavone at the 2011 Australian Open. In recent years, however, their games have gone in opposite directions. While Schiavone remains one of the most fun players in the game to watch, her game is not at its former level. Kuznetsova, meantime, is enjoying a career resurgence at age 31. Kuznetsova in two.
(14) Petra Kvitova vs. Jelena Ostapenko
This is an upset alert match. For whatever reason, Kvitova has never shined in New York; her trip to the quarterfinals a year ago was her first time past the round of 16. She remains, however, one of the most talented players on tour and is coming off an Olympic bronze. Ostapenko, meantime, is a rising star with designs on winning this title one day. It’s a bad draw for both, but only Kvitova will move on – barely. Kvitova in three.
Caroline Wozniacki vs. Taylor Townsend
Two of the most likeable players on tour face off in what should be a wildly entertaining first-round match of opposing styles – Townsend’s attacking game against Wozniacki’s baseline counterpunching. The two-time US Open finalist has been hampered all year by injuries. If healthy, this is a match she should win, but Townsend is on a roll after coming through qualifying. In an upset, it’s Townsend in three.
MATT CRONIN'S PICK OF THE DAY:
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. Jerzy Janowicz
Last year, Novak Djokovic was on fire, winning the 2015 US Open for the second time, and from there, he was winning all the time. He won the ATP championship at the end of 2015, and in 2016, he took home titles at the Australian Open and Roland Garros. He lost early at Wimbledon, however, against Sam Querrey.
Now we have to see whether the Serbian can be patient in the next two weeks. He is an excellent player, and 10 years ago at the US Open, he was very good, but he was still waiting to get better. Five years ago, he was ready to rock. His forehand was more powerful, his serve was amazing, he had become very smart on court, and he knew that he could stay on court for hours and hours.
Djokovic will face Jerzy Janowicz on Monday, a tall veteran who has been playing for the last 10 years. He is 6-foot-8, he has a huge serve, and he can hustle, but he is a little bit slower. They have never played against each other, while the Polish Janowicz has gotten close, but not close enough.
Janowicz has to come out strong and move ahead. There is no reason to junk a ball; he has to go for the lines. Novak says that he is not 100 percent – yet. Outdoors, the Serbian can mix it up. He knows exactly how to play – inside the lines, going back – and when he is ready to rush the court, he charges.
In 2011, Djokovic started to win everything, and since then, he has been incredibly confident. He may not be perfect, but on court, he is very intense. He has already won seven events this year, including Toronto last month. He loves the hard courts.
During the next two weeks at the US Open, Djokovic has to be very patient because in the 2012 New York final, Andy Murray was extremely confident towards the end, while Djokovic panicked, falling 7-6, 7-5, 2-6, 3-6, 6-2.
He kept changing. He has been at No. 1 forever now, and while at the US Open over the years, Djokovic has become smarter and smarter. His forehand has improved so much in New York, as well as his chipping and charging. He understands what he should be hitting and what he should be backing off.
Djokovic may be a little off, but he has time during the first week. In the second week, he has to be ready to go. Janowicz can win a set but not more. Novak will move on in four sets.
