2-ROGER FEDERER VS. 5-STAN WAWRINKA
Now this is a fascinating matchup. The 34-year-old Federer certainly is the favorite, given that his fellow Swiss has never been able to beat him on hard courts, but without a doubt, Wawrinka has improved his play over the past two years.
Before 2014, Wawrinka had only won four titles, none of which were in top tournaments. In 2013, he had begun to blossom, taking Novak Djokovic to five sets at both the Australian Open and US Open. And since the start of 2014, he has won six crowns, at the 2014 Australian Open, the 2015 Roland Garros, plus Monte Carlo and Rotterdam, among others.
Back in the spring of 2013, the now 30-year-old wanted to change and hired his coach Magnus Norman. The Swede decided that Wawrinka needed to get in better shape and improve his forehand and serve. Wawrinka did all of those, which is why he cracked the Top 5. He beat the likes of Djokovic in a couple of delicious five-setters, he got through Rafa Nadal in the final of the Aussie Open, he stunned Andy Murray at the 2013 US Open, and somewhat most importantly, he out-hit Federer in Paris.
He and Federer are good friends, so it’s not like they are going to scream and curse at each other. But they won’t back off, either, because both have legitimate shots to win it all. Both have a tremendous amount of variety, and when they are playing against other opponents, they can trick them as to where they are going, but Federer and Wawrinka have hit with each other and played against each other so many times that it’s all about performance, not strategy.
Both men have amazing, high-quality, slice-and-dice backhands. They both can flatten them out and go down the line or smooth on some heavy topspin that comes down at the last second and touches the baseline. Federer’s forehand is significantly better and can dominate cross the court, but Wawrinka now can go down the line when he is feeling it. Federer also has more variety in his serves and he certainly is smoother at the net. In fact, Federer has been more courageous and thoughtful, which is why, head to head, Roger owns 16 victories and Wawrinka has three.
Stan reached the semifinals at the US Open two years ago and fell in five sets to Djokovic. Four months later, he and the Serb went at it again at the 2014 Australian Open, and this time Wawrinka was more colorful, winning the contest. The same thing occurred with Wawrinka against Federer at the French Open: when he went on court, he was already locked and enthusiastic and he hit line after line to win. In a sense, Federer didn’t know what hit him.
This time, Federer realizes his time is now. He has been playing nearly flawless tennis during the fortnight, crushing everyone. The Arthur Ashe Stadium hard court is faster than the clay, and Federer will not be forced into long rallies. He will go right at wawrinka, come to the net as soon as possible, wear him down with some very deep forehands and, late in the fourth set in the tiebreak, he will spin him around. The ‘elder’ Federer will reach the final once again.
1-NOVAL DJOKOVIC VS. 9-MARIN CILIC
The 2014 US Open champion Marin Cilic has been substantially better here in New York than he has been in the rest of the world in the past year. He was injured right after he left Flushing Meadows a year ago, he rarely played the rest of the year and didn't begin to compete again until March. Gradually, he has looked better and better, but he struggled against the top players. The Croat’s huge serve and massive forehand were pretty effective, but his backhand was very spotty, he wasn't returning very well and, mentally, he would become very disappointed if he wasn't playing particular well.
When he arrived in New York two weeks ago, all of that changed. He was jumping up and down, he was happy and he was hopeful. He was consistent and forceful at the net. In the fifth set of the quarterfinals against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Cilic didn’t panic. He pulled out a terrific contest and ka-boom, he has reached the semifinal once again.
Unfortunately, Cilic has to face No. 1 Djokovic in the semis. Djokovic has beaten him all 13 times they’ve played, and he has schooled him in every type of significant contest: Canada, Cincinnati, Indian Wells, the French Open, Wimbledon and, in 2008, here, beating Cilic at the 2008 US Open, 6-7, 7-5, 6-4, 7-6, in the third round.
The nine-time Grand Slam champion Djokovic has “only” won one US Open, back in 2011. Last year, he was shocked by Kei Nishikori in the semis. Novak was super angry. This time, though, he is not going to lose his head. He realizes that as long as he can return Cilic’s serve, then he will grind him from inside the baseline. His strokes are more effective and he is significantly faster. While Cilic thinks he has a shot to finally get him, he doesn't have the right combinations against Djokovic. Cilic will be very risky and will snag a set, but that is it. Djokovic will win in four sets and reach the final.
1-SERENA WILLIAMS VS. ROBERTA VINCI
Vinci never stops trying, which is why the Italian has played 20 tournaments this season, rarely taking a rest, changing her tactics and thinking about exactly how she will get better. She is 32 years old now, which may seem old to some, but world No. 1 Serena Williams will soon be 34, and she has only lost two matches this year, so maybe the elder set can indeed play on and on.
The benefit of being a veteran is that you are smarter and more effective. Serena, however, is a substantially better competitor, which is partly why she has won 21 majors and Vinci has none. Serena has beaten every player, on every surface, and even though Vinci sports a wicked slice, that rarely bothers Serena.
Vinci has played very well during the fortnight, but she has not had to face any of the seeded players (Genie Bouchard, No. 25, had to pull out before they played after suffering a concussion), and while she looked comfortable, she did not have to hit through the big girls. Vinci was gutsy in outlasting Kristina Mladenovic, and she has been more aggressive with her forehand and first serve, but how can she really hurt Williams?
The two women played in Toronto, where Serena hurt her hand but came through, 6-4, 6-3. They have played three other times, at Wimbledon, Miami and Roland Garros, and Serena hasn't lost a set. If Vinci can get into the rallies, she could mix it up and disturb her, but Serena can eliminate Vinci with big serves and returns. There is a little that she can do. Serena will win in two easy sets and reach the final.
2-SIMONA HALEP VS. 26-FLAVIA PENNETTA
The Romanian Halep was truly gutsy knocking off the former No. 1 Victoria Azarenka, going for her shots deep into the third set. The Italian Pennetta went to the wall against Petra Kvitova, rallying to win in three sets. The two faster players won, tripping up the stronger competitors, and now Halep and Pennetta will go at each other, toe to toe, to see who can advance to their first US Open final.
The 33-year-old Pennetta has been here before, reaching the semifinals at the 2013 US Open, upsetting the 2004 champion Svetlana Kuznetsova, her Italian friends Sara Errani and Roberta Vinci and, and believe it or not, Halep, in the round of 16, 6-2, 7-6. The then 21-year-old Halep was just coming into her own, having won a series of small tournaments, and it was apparent that she was rising fast. A year later, she finally broke through, reaching the 2014 Roland Garros final, nearly upending Maria Sharapova. She was very close then, but not quite there yet.
This same goes for this year. Halep has won a few big events, such as Indian Wells, but she has yet to win a major. Is she ready now? She was more effective against Azarenka, and now she has to do the same thing against Pennetta – go for it when the ball is just right. Pennetta has a lot more experience than Halep, and she knows time is ticking. She will not go quietly into the night, and without a doubt, they will have a ton of long rallies. But deep in the third set, Pennetta won’t hit as hard as she can, while Halep will pull off a number of amazing angles. And with that, Halep will reach the US Open final for the first time.
